NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Dec. 8): Willing to Bet on Rams’ QB Roulette?

NFL Week 14 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Rams. The Raiders are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The Raiders have had a disappointing season, but it’s had nothing to do with their offense. They rank in the top 10 in both yards and points per game, and the team has played better of late. They’ve picked up wins in three straight contests, and they’ll have a chance to make it four in a row vs. the reeling Rams.

The Raiders’ offense is based around their two stars: Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. Adams has had no issues transitioning to Las Vegas. He’s tied for the league lead with 12 receiving touchdowns, and his average of 98.0 yards per game is just shy of a new career high. His 79 receptions also ranks fourth among receivers.

Unsurprisingly, Adams also stands out in terms of advanced metrics. His 32.9% target market share is the top mark in the league, while his 43% air yards share ranks fifth. He’s had a perfect 100% route participation in each of his past three games, and he was targeted on 40% of his routes run last week vs. the Chargers.

Adams has now finished with at least 30.6 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, but he’s going to face a stiff test against the Rams. The Rams’ pass defense has taken a serious step back this season – they rank just 27th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA – but they still have one of the best corners in football in Jalen Ramsey. He ranks fourth among qualified cornerbacks in terms of Pro Football Focus grade, and he has been known to shadow opposing receivers all across the formation.

Does any of that matter for Adams? Probably not. Even with Ramsey, the Rams still rank 31st in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. He had an even tougher matchup three weeks ago vs. the Broncos, but that didn’t stop him from racking up seven catches, 141 yards, and two touchdowns. Ultimately, if the field is even slightly scared of the matchup, there’s a chance that Adams will be under-owned in this spot.