In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Derrick Henry
- Dalvin Cook
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Derrick Henry ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (41.5 total)
The game script was definitely a factor last week, as Derrick Henry had his lowest touch count since Week 2 with 13. Henry has seen at least 17 touches in ten of twelve games this year, with 20+ touches in nine. Henry’s passing game usage fluctuates, so duds like last week are going to happen every once in a while.
His efficiency has been down as of late, as Henry is averaging just 2.77 yards per carry on 75 attempts in the past four weeks. His (usual) strong volume makes up for his lack of efficiency as of late, but he is still capable of busting off big plays that can lead to a ceiling performance. Despite running poorly, he has 42 and 69-yard catches in two of the past three weeks.
The Jaguars have actually been fairly stout against opposing backs, surrendering just 3.98 yards per carry. They have allowed three rushing touchdowns to opposing backs in the past two games, which shows some upside for Henry to find paydirt.
As a home favorite, the game script shouldn’t be a factor this week for Henry. We’ve seen him put up big performances as the season gets later, and he’s set up with a prime opportunity against the Jaguars.
With the highest ceiling projection on the week, it’s no surprise that Henry is the top back in our Tournament Model.
Dalvin Cook ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+2) at Detroit Lions (51.5 total)
Dalvin Cook had an alright performance last week, running 20 times for 86 yards and a touchdown and catching two balls for -3 yards against a solid Jets defense. It’s the fifth time that Cook has hit 20 carries in a game this year, as he usually can approach that number as long as the game is in hand.
Alexander Mattison also ran in a touchdown last week that very easily could’ve been Cook’s. If Cook finds paydirt for the second time, we likely view his performance last week quite differently. In the past five weeks, four of the five defenses that Cook has faced rank in the top 14 in yards allowed per carry. The fifth team is Dallas, who Cook averaged 6.5 yards per carry against. Dallas jumped on Minnesota early in that game, so Cook was only able to touch the ball 11 times.
Cook now gets to play Detroit, who is a defense that we’ve been targeting all season. They’ve given up the eighth-most rushing fantasy points per game. Cook carried the ball 17 times for 96 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a shoulder injury when these teams first played. Detroit has patched up their defense as of late, allowing merely 4.08 yards per carry since Week 6 and only surrendering one rushing touchdown since Week 8.
The matchup isn’t as great as one would think, but it is still the easiest matchup that Cook has had in a while in the top game environment of the week.
Cook is rightfully the top back in our Cash Game Model, as well as in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Joe Mixon ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (46.5 total)
Joe Mixon missed his second game in a row due to a concussion but is set to return this week against Cleveland. Samaje Perine has played very well in Mixon’s absence, so there’s at least a chance that Perine mixes in more than he did prior to Mixon’s injury. It is worrisome that the Bengals only ran the ball nine times when these teams last played, but Bengals backs combined for 11 receptions.
Cleveland is a team that we’ve been streaming running backs against all year, as they’re allowing the third-most yards per carry to running backs at 5.11 and the second-most yards per carry before contact at 2.12. Cincinnati has one of the highest team totals of the weekend at 27, so finding exposure to their offense is likely a good move.
Tony Pollard ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-17.5) vs. Houston Texans (44 total)
The hierarchy in the Dallas backfield is much closer to a 50/50 split now, with Tony Pollard handling 14 touches last week against Indianapolis. He has been running hot in the touchdown department, with eight touchdowns in his last five games. Pollard is explosive, but it’s difficult to see him paying off his price tag if he isn’t able to find the end zone. He isn’t priced as cheap as he used to be.
With Dallas sitting as a huge favorite with a massive 30-point team total, they look like an offense to attack. Houston’s defense has been improved recently, allowing 4.0 yards per carry over the last three weeks. They’ve only allowed one rushing touchdown in the past three games also. Despite the defensive improvements, Dallas will likely have enough volume on the ground to overcome the “matchup.”
D’Andre Swift ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (51.5 total)
D’Andre Swift wasn’t on the injury report for the first time since Week 1, which resulted in his strongest usage in a while. He played on 51.3% of the snaps, parlaying 18 touches into 111 yards and a touchdown. It was his first time with more than 10 touches in a game since Week 1. With 14 targets in the past two weeks, his passing game role appears to be secure.
Jamaal Williams is still a pain to deal with from a fantasy perspective, as he’s just been eating up the touchdowns all season long. Swift is in the top game environment of the week, but the matchup is a little tough on the ground. The Vikings are allowing just 3.87 yards per carry to opposing backs. They have surrendered the sixth-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which bodes well for Swift.
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