NFL Player Props: Davante Adams, Tyler Higbee Picks for Raiders-Rams on Thursday Night Football

Thursday’s matchup features two teams that are trending in entirely different directions. The Raiders are riding a three-game winning streak, which has vaulted them back into the AFC Wildcard race. After starting the year 3-3, the Rams have been beaten with injuries and have dropped six straight contests. They’re currently sitting second to last in the NFC, and they don’t own their first-round pick. Despite having no playoff aspirations, the Rams have no reason to roll over in this spot.

The Raiders are 6.5-point favorites, with the total for the game sitting at 43.5. Neither defense has been very imposing this year, so it’ll be interesting to see how these two teams choose to attack. After a 1-1 performance on Monday Night, the player props are now 29-26 on the year.

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Raiders-Rams NFL Player Prop Picks

Davante Adams Over 88.5 Receiving Yards

Now is not the time to fade Davante Adams, as the Raiders’ passing offense practically revolves around him. He has seen at least 30% of the team targets in five straight games, with 38.5% of team targets and a 36.2% target rate per route run in that span. Adams has 11+ targets in five straight games, with 67 total in the stretch.

He’s also been racking up yards, with at least 126 yards in four of his last five games. He now has at least 95 yards in eight of twelve games of the year.

Adams’ usage makes the matchup irrelevant, but he gets a soft matchup for what it’s worth. The Rams have allowed Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, DeAndre Hopkins, and Rondale Moore to top 94 yards in the past four weeks.

It’s hard to poke any holes in Davante Adams’ outlook for tonight. He may face shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, but Ramsey has been playing poorly. He’s also beaten Ramsey before, catching eight balls for 104 yards when he played against the Rams with Green Bay last year.

Our Prop Tool puts Adams right around his receiving number, but with his usage coupled with the easy matchup, I like Adams to go over.

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Tyler Higbee Over 30.5 Receiving Yards

The Rams’ passing game is at an all-time low, with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson all sidelined with injuries. Despite the challenging circumstances, this seems like a solid buy-low opportunity on a specific Los Angeles pass catcher.

Tyler Higbee now has two games with John Wolford under center this year, catching eight balls for 73 yards about a month ago and two balls for 14 yards last week. However, he did see five targets last week, but he and Wolford weren’t able to connect consistently. Higbee now has a 31% and 25% target rate per route run in his two games with Wolford under center.

We’ve seen Higbee be able to rack up at least five targets regardless of who the quarterback is, so it’s hard not to see the path to him going over his total. The matchup is also exploitable, as the Raiders allow 7.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Gerald Everett (80 yards), Noah Fant and Will Dissly (51 yards), and Greg Dulcich (30 yards) have all had solid performances against Las Vegas recently. The Rams are underdogs of nearly a touchdown, so they could be forced into a negative game script, which could lead to more dropbacks and potential targets for Higbee.

Our Prop Tool puts his number at 31, showing slight value in the over. It doesn’t matter if it’s Wolford or Baker Mayfield; getting the ball to Higbee should be part of the equation.