Something about this NFC South division clash brings out the best in the New Orleans Saints. They have beaten the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in four-straight games by an average of 18.8 points per game. A win tonight would put the Saints a half-game back of the Buccaneers in the NFC South with only a few games remaining.
Despite being shut out last week against the 49ers for the first time since the 2001 season, the Saints should have plenty of confidence in this matchup. Their defense held a talented 49ers offense to 13 points last week, and they rank 11th in the league in total yards allowed per game. They have struggled offensively, but they still have plenty of weapons.
The Buccaneers may have their hands full with this Saints defense, as they have eclipsed 22 points just once all season. Holding on to a 5-6 record, the Buccaneers currently lead the NFC South. It hasn’t been a pretty season, but they are finally getting healthy. Will health be enough to fight off the Saints for the first time at home since 2017?
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Buccaneers vs. Saints Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Alvin Kamara Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
This Alvin Kamara receiving prop feels ridiculously low at only 26.5 yards. He has gone well over this line in five of his last six games while averaging 47.8 receiving yards per game during that time. Reaching the end zone has been nearly impossible for Kamara this season, but he has been racking up yards with ease.
Through 10 games this season, Kamara has one rushing touchdown and two receiving touchdowns. The crazy part is they all came in Week 8 against the Raiders! He will likely struggle to reach the end zone again tonight, but his averages of 6.5 targets and 4.9 receptions rank second on the team behind wide receiver Chris Olave.
Kamara missed Week 2 against the Buccaneers due to an injury but has gone over this line in seven of 10 previous matchups, averaging 49.3 receiving yards per game. This prop had by far the biggest hit rate in our simulations at 82%. Kamara’s receiving yards prop is the best available tonight and leads off our three-prop parlay.
New Orleans Saints +3.5
There are a lot of positive trends pointing toward the Saints tonight. First off, they have dominated this matchup in recent years. Secondly, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games, and they have also lost eight of their previous nine games after coming off an overtime game.
With only five games left and one game before their bye week, the Saints need this win to stay in contention in the NFC South. A wildcard spot is nearly impossible, but they can overtake the Buccaneers if they win tonight and come out hot after the bye week. Outside of the Eagles in Week 17, the Saints’ remaining opponents have a combined record of 19-29.
The under of 40.5 points is also in play as each of the last four Saints games as underdogs have gone under the total points line. Correlate our Kamara over receiving yards with the Saints covering the spread.
Tom Brady Under 271.5 Passing Yards
Since joining the Buccaneers, Tom Brady has struggled in this matchup against the Saints. Through five games, Brady is averaging only 245.4 passing yards per game. He has gone under this prop in four of those five games, and in the only game he went over, Brady threw for 375 yards. That has dramatically inflated his average passing yards in this spot.
At 45 years old, Brady has finally taken a bit of a step back. They will also be trying to protect Brady without one of their top offensive lineman in Tristan Wirfs. Expect the Bucs to lean on the quick pass and the run game, as the Saints’ defense ranks 12th in pass DVOA and 21st against the run per FootballOutsiders.
Mike Evans has been dominated in this matchup against Saints defensive back Marshon Lattimore. With Brady under center, Evans is averaging 37.8 receiving yards per game in this spot. He has only three touchdowns this season after having a career-high 14 last season. Through 11 games this season, Brady has gone under this line in more than half. Father Time remains undefeated, and it will be tough for Brady to thrive in this challenging matchup.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +316, while FanDuel is offering +626. That is exceptional value on this parlay!
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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