NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 13’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 13 NFL DFS Angles

Week 13 is shaping up to be a really fun slate with close spreads, high totals, and great matchups. With so many great plays available to us, it’s a great slate to pivot off of the chalk we see condensing.

At running back, I love Aaron Jones this week in what looks like a perfect storm. Chicago gets Justin Fields back this week, which should speed them up a bit and keep them more competitive. Defensively, however, the Bears are a train wreck. 28th in DVOA against the run this year, and just last week, we saw a hodgepodge of backup Jets running backs go off to the tune of over 6.0 yards per carry!

Samaje Perine is another guy I have my eye on after last week’s performance. I am currently projecting Mixon out, but even if he plays, I will have some interest in Perine at extremely low ownership after Zac Taylor was non-committal about Perine possibly retaining a lead-back role with Mixon back. Perine’s pass-catching gives him a great floor/ceiling combo in a matchup that should see the Bengals airing it out all game.

Finally, after being fairly popular last week, I am stunned to see Keenan Allen getting lost in the shuffle. Allen remains Justin Herbert’s No. 1 target with Mike Williams on the shelf and gets a matchup with the Raiders, who rank dead last in DVOA against the pass this season.

At just $6500 and currently projecting below 10% ownership across the industry, sign me up.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You want to avoid pairings like Davante Adams with Josh Jacobs in GPPs to ensure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

Jared Goff is a guy I am normally looking to double-stack, but the return of Jameson Williams seems likely to set up a nasty rotation at receiver. In this rare instance, I’m okay pairing Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and running it back with a Jag or two.

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.