The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 13.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes at Cincinnati Bengals – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes again projects for the highest ceiling on the week in what looks to be a less-than-ideal matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank 12th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
The Chiefs are a two-point favorite in a matchup with a 53-point total, the highest on the slate. The hyper-effective Chiefs offense looks ready for a shootout, playing opposite Joe Burrow and the high-powered Bengals offense.
Despite Mahomes’ dual-threat ability, the Chiefs remain one of the more pass-happy teams in the league, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run play-calling ratio (per RotoViz), the third highest in the league. The superstar quarterback should continue to have a dominant season, averaging 325.9 passing yards per game and a 66.1% completion rate. In a 26-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12, Mahomes passed for 320 yards and one touchdown, also rushing for 36 yards on four attempts.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Mahomes appears in matchups above a 53-point total, he averages 27.58 actual DraftKings points, with a +4.24 Plus/Minus and a 59.5% consistency rating.
Even with the expensive price tag–the most of any quarterback on both sites, Mahomes can certainly reach an 85th-percentile outcome both through the air and in his rushing ability.
Top Value: Trevor Lawrence at Detroit Lions – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence projects as a top value option on DraftKings, leading a Jaguars offense in a road matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker defenses in the league.
In 11 games this season, Lawrence is averaging 241.4 passing yards per game and a 66.5% completion rate and has thrown for more than 200 yards in eight games. In a 28-27 upset of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, Lawrence threw for a season-high 321 yards and three touchdowns and looks to have an easier matchup on paper, especially playing in the dome of Ford Field.
According to PFF, the Lions rank 27th in overall defense. Lawrence is a solid option that should unlock higher-priced skill position players, given his discounted salary on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Austin Ekeler at Las Vegas Raiders – $8,500 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Austin Ekeler projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a Raiders defense ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA.
Ekeler, who is in the midst of a breakout season, is a key playmaker for the Chargers offense, averaging 11.6 carries per game and 4.33 yards per carry, also seeing 8.9 targets per game, and 7.3 yards per game. In a matchup with a 50.5-point total, expect Ekeler to be a main factor in the Chargers’ scoring, who are currently one-point underdogs. In a Week 12 25-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals, Ekeler rushed for 20 yards on five attempts and was targeted 15 times, catching 11 passes for 60 yards and one touchdown. In fact, the multi-purpose back has recorded a touchdown in all seven of the Chargers’ 11 games this season.
Despite a lofty price tag on both sites, Ekeler provides a solid floor for lineups, given his workload both through the air and on the ground. In a matchup that is expected to be high scoring and close by Vegas standards, be sure to prioritize consistency against a weaker defense.
Top Value: Dalvin Cook vs. New York Jets – $7,200 on DraftKings, $7,600 on FanDuel
Despite a high price tag, Dalvin Cook projects as a top value in a matchup with the New York Jets, who rank sixth in rushing DVOA.
Cook is far and away the lead back in the Vikings offense, responsible for 69% of the rushing share, averaging 16.2 rushing attempts per game and 4.72 yards per carry. With 3.5 targets per game, Cook also factors into the Vikings’ passing game, despite a receiving corps featuring Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. In a 33-26 win over the New England Patriots on Thanksgiving, Cook rushed for 42 yards on 22 attempts, also catching four passes for 14 yards.
In a low-total matchup, Cook is a fantasy-relevant option with guaranteed volume in the running game despite a tough matchup against the Jets.
He’s an intriguing one-off play in tournaments.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Davante Adams again projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers in Week 13 against the Los Angele Chargers, who rank 15th in pass DVOA.
A less-than-ideal matchup on paper for the hyper-elite wideout, Adams has a 31% target share and is the preferred option for quarterback Derek Carr, averaging 11.2 targets per game and 14.1 yards per reception. Further, look for Adams to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in six of the Raiders’ 11 games this season. In the 40-34 shootout win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12, Adams was targeted 11 times, catching seven passes for 74 yards.
Aside from the volume, Adams is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 16 end zone targets so far this season, per AddMoreFunds, leading the Raiders’ receiving corps. In a matchup with shootout potential, look to target Adams either in a stack with Carr or as a bring-back with Charge skill players, especially Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling in a home matchup with the New York Jets. The Week 13 matchup looks difficult on paper for the elite wideout, with New York ranking sixth in DVOA. This season, Jefferson is averaging 10.5 targets per game, combined with 15.2 yards per reception, and is responsible for 29% of the Vikings’ target share. Despite the sky-high 8,900 salary on DraftKings, Jefferson is a consistent option to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
In the 33-26 Thanksgiving Day win over the New England Patriots, Jefferson was targeted 11 times, catching nine passes for 139 yards and one touchdown. With the consistent volume and potential to reach the 100-yard receiving bonus,
Jefferson looks to be in a pay-up-to-be-contrarian spot against a tough Jets defense.
Top Value: Garrett Wilson at Minnesota Vikings – $5,300 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel
Garrett Wilson projects as a top value option this week at wide receiver after a smash performance against the Chicago Bears in Week 12.
Wilson is the leader in market share in the Jets’ receiving corps, responsible for a 22% target share, and the rookie wideout has been a consistent target for quarterback Zach Wilson and looks to be a preferred option for quarterback Mike White, who targeted the rookie wideout eight times, catching five passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-10 win.
To add, if the passing volume should continue for Wilson, look for a dominant performance, facing a Vikings defense ranked 27th in pass DVOA, even with a low 44.5-point total.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Cincinnati Bengals – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
If Patrick Mahomes reaches a ceiling outcome, expect tight end Travis Kelce to have a similar outcome. Kelce projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, facing a Bengals defense ranked ninth in pass DVOA — a difficult matchup for what can be considered a unfadeable player in the league.
Kelce should continue to be the first-look option for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is responsible for a team-leading 24% target share. Kelce is averaging 12.5 yards per reception and 9.3 targets per game this season. Of course, Kelce is also a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings. He is in the ballpark (90+ receiving yards) in six of the Chiefs’ first 11 games and should also be considered for his touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in seven games.
The Cheifs stack is a very expensive one, but consistency and touchdown upside looks to be the main benefit in a high-total matchup and is worthy of a second look.
Top Value: Tyler Conklin at Minnesota Vikings – $3,100 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Tyler Conklin projects as a top value at tight end, given his discounted salary on DraftKings, facing his former team in the Minnesota Vikings. Conklin is second in the Jets’ receiving corp, only behind Garrett Wilson, with a 16% target share, averaging 5.1 targets per game. In a 31-10 win over the Chicago Bears, Conklin was targeted three times, catching three passes for 50 yards. And although the touchdown upside might not be there, the pass volume adds to his upside, further enhancing his fantasy relevance.
With a discounted salary on DraftKings, look for Conkin to be a consistent option at tight end and could even be paired with the versatile Justin Jefferson as a bring back-option.
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