NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in 49ers-Cardinals

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in 49ers vs. Cardinals Showdown

Barring a major surprise, Kyler Murray looks set to miss another start on Monday Night. Bettors have responded by pushing the 49ers from -8 to -10 overnight. With this projected game environment, I am more than happy to go back to the Niners’ running game after Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey combined to see 40 total opportunities last week. I am more than happy to play both in the same lineup with some smart rules to govern how these lineups look. I’ll be using a rule to decrease Jimmy Garoppolo by at least 15% and want no more than one of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

One final note is that I am looking to be over the field on Keaontay Ingram. James Conner had an enormous role last week as the Cardinals played from ahead, but I think Ingram could see more run in the passing game if the Cardinals get down early, as expected.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Jimmy Garoppolo with at least two Niners pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Colt McCoy with at least two Cardinals pass-catchers
• Max one of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle in lineups with both SF running backs
• Decrease Garoppolo by 15% in lineups with both SF running backs
• Increase San Francisco D by 10% in lineups with both SF running backs
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max one Trey McBride and Stephen Anderson
• Max one AJ Green and Robbie Anderson
• Max one Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Christian McCaffrey
• Brandon Aiyuk
• George Kittle

Secondary Targets

• Deebo Samuel
• Deandre Hopkins
• James Conner
• Elijah Mitchell

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Rondale Moore
• 49ers Defense