NFL Player Props: D.J. Moore, Marcus Mariota Picks for Falcons-Panthers on Thursday Night Football

With the NFC South teams combining for a 13-23 record, the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons are both alive for the division title. Atlanta is tied with Tampa Bay for first place at 4-5 right now, with Carolina sitting two games back at 2-7. Carolina currently has the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, so a win here would be crucial for them. A loss for Carolina could be all she wrote, as they’d be three games back of Atlanta and would not own the tiebreaker.

These teams gave us the potential “game of the year” a few weeks ago, with D.J. Moore hauling in a hail mary and Atlanta barely sneaking away with an overtime victory. Hopefully, we can see similar fireworks tonight, as the Thursday Night games have been somewhat uneventful this season. The props are 23-17 on the year so far, so a 2-0 night would be a big boost to the record!

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Falcons-Panthers NFL Player Props

DJ Moore Under 58.5 Receiving Yards

It feels as if all of the stars are aligning for this Moore under. Moore has had an up-and-down season, struggling to connect on targets with Baker Mayfield before finding a little more of a groove with PJ Walker.

Moore has gone under this yardage total in six of nine games in the year, including reaching just 59 yards in one of the games where he went over. With Walker under center primarily for the last four games, Moore has gone under two of four. With no other factors considered, Moore has a good chance of coming in under his total.

Have I mentioned the weather forecast for tonight’s game yet? We’re expecting 10-15 MPH winds, with a 90% chance of precipitation. The conditions will make connecting on downfield throws difficult, leading to shorter passes and more rushing attempts.

Our Prop Tool also shows a lot of value on this number, with Sean Koerner projecting Moore’s yardage total at 50.4.

Marcus Mariota Under 157.5 Passing Yards

This bet feels ugly and gross at such a low number, but it makes sense in tonight’s game. Atlanta deploys one of the most run-heavy schemes in the league, which has led to Mariota consistently coming in under this total. He’s gone under this yardage total in five of nine games on the year, including five of his last six.

The Falcons are tied with the second-lowest pass rate in the league and have even more reason to lean on the ground game tonight. It’ll be rainy in Charlotte with the wind whipping around, and Atlanta has recently gotten back Cordarrelle Patterson from injury.

Atlanta is also dealing with a slew of injuries on the offensive line, as they’re starting an undrafted rookie at left guard. Colby Gossett is the man Atlanta is leaning on to step up, but he’s been practicing at right guard, as he’s currently listed there on Atlanta’s depth chart. When Mariota does drop back, he may have lackluster protection in front of him.

Mariota threw for 253 yards against Carolina a few weeks ago, but that was in a high-scoring affair in Atlanta’s comfortable dome. This game will take place outdoors in the elements, where connecting on passes through the air will be difficult. Sean Koerner’s model projects this line at 156.5, showing a little bit of value in the under. However, this prop shows some value when factoring in the weather, injuries, and Atlanta’s love for running the ball.