NFL Player Props: Lamar Jackson, Alvin Kamara Picks for Ravens-Saints on Monday Night Football

In a year filled with lackluster primetime matchups, it appears we’re going to get a competitive Monday Night showdown. The 5-3 Ravens travel to New Orleans to battle the 3-5 Saints, with Baltimore favored by 1.5 currently.

A win for Baltimore will give a cushion to their lead in the AFC North, while New Orleans can enter into the three-way tie atop the NFC South with a win. This Baltimore team is dealing with a slew of injuries, so it’ll be interesting to see how they adjust ahead of this matchup.

Thursday night saw two heartbreaking prop losses, as A.J. Brown missed his total by a yard, and Jalen Hurts went over his total by merely eight yards. The props now sit at 22-16 on the year. Let’s start moving back in the right direction!

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Ravens-Saints NFL Player Props

Alvin Kamara Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

Alvin Kamara has danced around this rushing total all season long. He’s been far over in two games (99 and 103), clearly under in two (39 and 49), and right around it in the other two (61 and 62). He’s gone over this total in three of four games since returning from injury, as the Saints have adjusted to just feeding their best player.

Kamara has averaged 17.75 carries per game in the past four games, despite seeing 11 carries in one. The 11-carry game came in a 42-34 loss against the Cardinals on a Thursday night. Despite the final score, the game wasn’t that close, and the Saints’ ground game was basically scripted out. Two pick-sixes by Andy Dalton gave Arizona a big lead, as they led 28-14 at the half and 35-17 with merely 12 minutes left.

We know Kamara will be fed if the game is close, and with this point spread sitting at 1.5, it should be a tight contest. New Orleans will likely look to the ground for their success, as they’re still missing some of their top receivers, and the Ravens rank 12th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass but just 25th against the run.

Our Prop Tool shows a ton of value in this number, with Sean Koerner projecting Kamara at 67 rushing yards.

Lamar Jackson Under 210.5 Passing Yards

Fading Lamar Jackson on primetime is a scary proposition, but it’s the right strategy for this game. Jackson’s prop is at 210.5 yards, which seems low at first glance. However, once you dig in, it appears too high.

Jackson has gone under this total in four of eight games, including four of his past five. He easily cleared this total against Tampa Bay last Thursday with 238 and in Week 2 against Miami with 318. Besides that, it’s been a struggle for Jackson to rack up yards. He threw for merely 213 in Week 1 against the Jets and 218 yards in Week 3 against New England. Baltimore’s receiving corps has sustained some injuries, which have led to his recent struggles. In Weeks 4-7, Jackson threw for 144, 174, 210, and 120 yards.

In Weeks 1-4, Baltimore ranked fifth in EPA per dropback. That number has plummeted, with them sitting at 21st in Weeks 5-8. Defenses have started to adjust, and injuries have piled up. The Saints’ defense has been below average against the pass, but Baltimore will continue to deal with a boatload of injuries.

Rashod Bateman is out for the season, Mark Andrews is out for this contest, and Demarcus Robinson is questionable with a groin injury and trending in the wrong direction. Gus Edwards is doubtful to play in the backfield, and J.K. Dobbins is currently on IR. The depth behind Andrews, Bateman, and Robinson in the receiving game is shaky. Those three and Dobbins make up 55.41% of total team targets for the year!

With Jackson missing his top two pass-catchers, the Ravens will likely look to run the ball with Jackson and Kenyan Drake. Devin Duvernay and Isaiah Likely are serviceable weapons through the air but are not world-beaters.

Our Prop Tool shows a lot of value here as well, with Sean Koerner projecting Jackson for 191.5 passing yards.