NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Thursday, Nov. 3): Is Miles Sanders Too Expensive?

NFL Week 9 features a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Eagles and Texans starting at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Eagles are listed as massive 14-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The Eagles have been one of the best teams in football this season, and they rank third in the league in both yards and points per game.

They’ve been led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has blossomed into a star in his third professional season. He’s always been one of the best athletes at the position, and he’s continued to provide elite production with his legs. He’s racked up an average of 43.3 yards per game, and he’s scored six touchdowns in his seven contests.

The bigger development is what he’s been able to do with his arm. He’s averaging career highs in virtually every category across the board, including yards per game (257.0), touchdown rate (4.7%), and adjusted yards per attempt (9.0). He hasn’t needed to beat teams with his arm very often this season but did it last week vs. the Steelers, racking up 285 passing yards and a career-best four passing touchdowns.

One way or another, Hurts should be able to pile up fantasy points vs. the Texans. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA and 17th in pass defense, so it’s a very friendly matchup.

Hurts easily leads all players from a projection standpoint in THE BLITZ. He owns the top median projection by more than nine points, and his ceiling projection leads the slate by nearly 15. He also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, so he’s an extremely tough fade on Thursday.

A.J. Brown is coming off a monster game last week, racking up six catches, 156 yards, and three touchdowns. He also had 11 targets, which was his top mark since Week 1 vs. the Lions.

Brown has been the Eagles’ clear top receiver this season, racking up a 31.4% target market share and a 44.6% air yards share. His target share is the fifth-highest mark in the league, while his air yards share ranks third.

However, the Eagles are not a team that has needed to throw the ball a ton this season. That has made his fantasy production a bit volatile, and he posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games prior to last week’s explosion. That makes him tough to trust vs. the Texans since the Eagles should be able to lean on their running game.