At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
The NFL Trade Deadline is upon us. Some teams are making moves to bolster their chances for an upcoming playoff push, while others are waving the white flag on this season, intending to build for the future. These moves could profoundly impact player usage moving forward. It’s part of the neverending cycle of fantasy sports and another ball in the air as we juggle player performance, usage, and what to expect moving forward.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
Tony Pollard (RB, Dallas Cowboys) – Week 8 Snap Count 31/58 (53.4%)
The Dallas Cowboys are disproving the old football adage, “if you have two, then you don’t have one.” Tony Pollard shone in his lead role against the Chicago Bears in Week 8, earning a more equal share of the offense moving forward.
Pollard only played 53.4% of the snaps on Sunday but was given the latter part of the contest off with the win already secured. Still, he made the most of his time on the field, toting the ball 14 times for 131 yards and a touchdown. Although presumptive starter Ezekiel Elliott has out-carried Pollard in all seven contests the running backs have played together, Pollard has out-gained Zeke on three occasions. As we have seen all season, even with a smaller workload, Pollard can make a difference.
Elliott’s health and effectiveness remain a concern, as his yards per carry and snap counts remain below his career norms. The Cowboys can’t continue to limit Pollard as they try to compete in the suddenly competitive NFC East. It’s time for Pollard to eat, and Dallas has no choice but to feed him the ball.
Dameon Pierce (RB, Houston Texans) – Week 8 Snap Count 42/54 (77.8%)
Whether daily or season-long fantasy leagues are your preferred choice, it’s easy to dismiss the Houston Texans as legitimate fantasy options. However, Dameon Pierce has emerged as a top-running back option and continues to absorb an increased workload out of Houston’s backfield.
The rookie running back was on the field for 42 of 54 plays, or 77.8%, the second-highest of his young career. He straddles a traditional role while also serving as a pass-catching back for Davis Mills, making him a true three-down option.
This past week against the Tennessee Titans isn’t a sterling example of his rushing abilities, as Pierce managed just 35 yards on 15 carries. Yet, that performance was the exception, not the rule, as the fourth-round draft pick surpassed 80 rushing in four straight games leading up to Sunday’s effort, averaging 100.5 yards per game.
The Texans’ ability to keep games close limits Pierce’s rushing ceiling. But he’s only dropped four passes this year for an outstanding 83.3% catch rate, salvaging his status as a low-cost RB1 candidate.
Tyler Boyd (WR, Cincinnati Bengals) – Week 8 Snap Count 51/53 (96.2%)
The Cincinnati Bengals were humbled by the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football, dropping a 32-13 decision to their in-state rivals. Ja’marr Chase was absent from the loss, contributing to the Bengals’ woes, but not incorporating Tyler Boyd more into the offense was the Bengals downfall.
Boyd played 96.2% of the offensive snaps against the Browns, a threshold he’s equaled or eclipsed in three of his previous four outings. That hasn’t yielded improved and sustained fantasy production, but a reliable trend is emerging between some of Boyd’s underlying metrics and Cincinnati’s results.
Not to overstate Boyd’s relevance, but the Bengals are 3-1 when he records at least four receptions and 1-3 when he comes in below that benchmark. Moreover, Boyd’s receiving yards per game is 93.3 in wins and 30.0 in losses, contributing to a net increase of 95.0 total yards of offense per game in the Bengals’ favor.
With the amount of time Boyd spends on the field, Joe Burrow would be wise to prioritize getting the wideout the ball more frequently.
Mike Evans (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Week 8 Snap Count 64/68 (94.1%)
Desperation is setting in for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they are turning to their star players more frequently to shake out of their early-season funk. That’s resulting in all-time high usage for Mike Evans, which we expect to eventually lead to a breakout performance.
Whether it’s bad luck, the yips, or something else, Evans has severely underperformed over his recent stretch, despite spending more time on the field. This past week, Evans played all but four offensive snaps, which was the third time over the past four games in which he’s surpassed 60 plays. Additionally, it was the second consecutive game that he was targeted at least 11 times. However, Evans has only hauled in 23 of 38 targets for a below-average 60.5% catch rate.
A few abhorrent drops have cost Evans fantasy points and the Bucs some much-needed yardage. The four-time Pro Bowler has regressed far enough, and it’s time for meaningful progression from Evans as his output starts to reflect some of his solid production metrics.
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