NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Oct. 30): Which Packers’ Wide Receiver Will Step Up?

NFL Week 8 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills are listed as 10.5-point home favorites, while the total currently sits at 47.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Josh Allen headlines this contest, and he has evolved into the clear best player in fantasy football. He’s averaged 29.5 fantasy points through his first six starts, and no other player in football is above 25.0. He has combined the best assets of virtually every other passer in the league: He racks up passing stats like Patrick Mahomes, rushing yards like Lamar Jackson, and rushing touchdowns like Jalen Hurts. There is simply nothing he can’t do on a football field.

Allen is dangerous in any situation, but he’s been particularly good as a large favorite throughout his career. He’s played in 17 games as a favorite of at least a touchdown, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.82 in those contests (per the Trends tool). He’s already had two starts as a favorite of at least a touchdown this season, and he’s racked up 39.16 and 32.68 DraftKings points.

However, he does draw a subpar matchup vs. the Packers. The best way to attack them is on the ground, ranking 11th in Football Outsiders in pass defense DVOA but just 31st against the run. Most teams have been willing to do that, which has limited the fantasy production for opposing quarterbacks. Allen owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.7 on DraftKings, which is the worst mark on the slate.

Is that enough to consider fading him? Of course not. Allen is capable of producing against anyone, and he dominates the rest of the field from a projection standpoint. His median projection leads the field by nearly seven points in THE BLITZ, while his ceiling projection is tops by more than 10 points.

Stefon Diggs has served as Allen’s top pass-catcher this season, which is obviously a very valuable role. He’s scored at least 27.4 DraftKings points in four of his six contests, and he ranks first at the position in PPR points per game. In fact, no receiver has more than his 150.6 PPR points this season, even though he’s already had his bye week.

The crazy part is that Diggs doesn’t benefit from an unusually high target share. His target market share of 27.2% does lead the team, but it ranks merely 14th in football. His 36.8% air yards share is also 14th in the league. That might give him a bit of a lower floor than some of the other top pass-catchers in football, but playing with Allen more than makes up for it.

Unfortunately, Diggs will face one of his toughest tests of the season vs. the Packers. He could draw shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, who remains one of the best corners in football. Even if Diggs avoids Alexander on occasion, the rest of the Packers’ corners are also solid. Overall, Pro Football Focus grades this as a below-average spot for Diggs, which seems pretty fair.