NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Ravens-Buccaneers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Ravens vs. Buccaneers Showdown

It’s hard not to see this as an absolute smash spot for Chris Godwin. While the results haven’t exactly been there for Godwin, the role has been excellent. He has averaged just over 10 targets per game since returning from injury in Week 4 and has been unlucky not to find the end zone. Now he gets a Ravens defense that has been uncharacteristically vulnerable through the air this year and looks like the most reliable option on offense.

Mike Evans looked significantly hobbled at the end of the Panthers game on Sunday, and with just 3 days to get right, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him look far less than 100% on Thursday night. Russell Gage seems likely to miss this game, and Leonard Fournette has started to be slowly phased out over recent weeks. I’d like to be way over the field on Godwin tonight.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Tom Brady with at least two Bucs pass catchers
• Pair Captain Lamar Jackson with at least one Ravens pass catcher
• With Rashaad White and Leonard Fournette inching towards a 50/50 split, I’ll be making a rule to decrease Fournette’s projection in lineups that contain White.
• Pair Captain pass catchers with at most one other pass catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

Max two kickers and defenses.

Max 1 of Scotty Miller and Breshad Perriman

Max 1 of Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill

Max 1 of Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Lamar Jackson
• Chris Godwin
• Mark Andrews

Secondary Targets

• Mike Evans
• Rashod Bateman
• Leonard Fournette
• Gus Edwards

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Devin Duvernay
• Rashaad White