At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Inevitably, injuries derail players’ seasons, and there was a rash of setbacks this week. Standout rookie Breece Hall is done for the year after tearing his ACL in Week 7. J.K. Dobbins is expected to miss four-to-six weeks following an arthroscopic knee procedure. And DK Metcalf could be on the shelf for a period after suffering a knee injury against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
The flip side of that equation is the return of other contributors who will step up in their stead. Gus Edwards, James Robinson, and Marquise Goodwin are all due for increased roles to offset their teammates’ losses.
As usual, we’re reconciling usage trends with actual fantasy output to see which superstars are trending up and which are regression candidates as we prepare for next week’s action.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, Carolina Panthers) – Week 7 Snap Count 23/50 (46.0%)
When the Carolina Panthers dealt Christian McCaffrey, we knew there would be profound ramifications to their lineup. The team appeared to stabilize their situation when they announced Chuba Hubbard as the starter in Week 7; however, their running back usage implies that D’Onta Foreman is the better fantasy option.
Granted, Hubbard found the end zone while rushing the ball nine times for 63 yards, but he played only 46% of the offensive snaps. The other 54% went to Foreman, who out-carried and out-rushed his counterpart by a substantive margin. Foreman toted the ball 15 times, running for 118 yards and adding two receptions for 27 yards.
Actions speak louder than words, and if Sunday’s win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is any indication, Foreman is the running back to target moving forward. Irrespective of the narrative leading up to the Panthers’ Week 8 battle against the Atlanta Falcons, the evidence shows that Hubbard takes a back seat in the game planning.
Josh Jacobs (RB, Las Vegas Raiders) – Week 7 Snap Count 45/56 (80.4%)
Josh Jacobs is seeing all-time high usage out of the Las Vegas Raiders’ backfield, and the team is better for it. We should expect sustained production from Jacobs as his usage peaks and the Raiders lean into their rushing attack to climb the AFC West standings.
Jacobs has been one of the best running backs in the league, and his improved production correlates with increased usage on offense. The Alabama Crimson Tide alum has seen an uptick in snap count over his recent sample, playing 80.4% or more of snaps in three straight games for the first time in his career. More importantly, Jacobs has churned out 441 rushing yards over that span, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.
This is the first time in Jacobs’ career that he has run for 100 or more yards on 20 or more touches in three consecutive outings.
In the first three games, Jacobs didn’t play more than 71.6% of snaps, with the Raiders losing all three contests. Since then, his usage has spiked, and the Raiders have won two of three. It’s safe to say that Las Vegas has unlocked the key to victory, and Jacobs will continue to shine.
Breece Hall (RB, New York Jets) – Week 7 Snap Count 12/60 (20.0%)
Breece Hall’s rookie season came to an abrupt end in Week 7. The New York Jets running back tore his ACL just 12 snaps into Sunday’s win over the Denver Broncos, giving way to Michael Carter in the Jets’ backfield.
Still, Carter’s time on offense will remain limited. The second-year back played a season-high 71.7% of snaps, mustering a pitiful 29 yards on 13 carries. That was enough for the Jets to pull the trigger on a deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars, landing James Robinson as Hall’s replacement.
Robinson has played a secondary role to Travis Etienne Jr. in Jacksonville. The 24-year-old played more than 48.6% of snaps on just two occasions and didn’t register a carry in Week 7. Nevertheless, Robinson has flashed his lead-back acumen, starting the first five games of the season, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
Hall emerged as an x-factor for the Jets, but Robinson brings a bruising running style that will keep pressure off Zach Wilson.
DK Metcalf (WR, Seattle Seahawks) – Week 7 Snap Count 20/71 (28.2%)
Things could have gone a lot worse for DK Metcalf. The former Pro Bowler had to be helped off the field after participating in 28.2% of the offensive plays on Sunday. It appears that Metcalf’s injury is not as bad as initially feared, and he will not require surgery before returning to the gridiron. However, the Seattle Seahawks haven’t offered any information on when he’s expected back.
Even before the injury, Metcalf’s target share had taken a bit of a hit. His target share is down to 24.1% this year from 26.1% in 2021. His metrics, such as catch rate, yards per game, and yards per reception are up marginally compared to the year prior but still well below his Pro Bowl stats from 2020. With a knee injury limiting his playing time moving forward, we’re not expecting him to recapture his career-best form.
Marquise Goodwin surfaced as a primary weapon in Metcalf’s absence. The former third-round draft pick set season benchmarks in snap count, yards, receptions, and targets, accounting for nearly half of his catches and receiving yards this year.
That’s the new standard we should expect from Goodwin as he steps up to replace Metcalf’s production. He’s the presumptive starter until Metcalf is back in the lineup, and if things go swimmingly, he carve out a bigger piece of the offense.
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