NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Oct. 22): Plenty of Value With the Clippers

Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic had a rough start to his season from a shooting perspective, particularly from 3-point range. He was just 2-10 from downtown, but he still finished with 56.25 DraftKings points in a tough matchup vs. the Suns. That’s good news for his fantasy prospects moving forward. He’s not going to shoot that poorly every night, and he posted a 42.0% usage rate in that contest. Doncic has led the league in usage in back-to-back seasons, but his previous career best in that department was 37.4%. With Jalen Brunson now in New York, it would not be surprising if Doncic surpassed that mark this season.

Doncic also gets a fantastic matchup Saturday vs. the Grizzlies. They played at the third-fastest pace last season, and they’re catching the Grizz on the second leg of a back-to-back.

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Value

Reggie Jackson wasn’t asked to do much in the Clippers’ first game of the year. They have an extremely deep rotation when the team is at full strength, but that won’t be the case on Saturday. Kawhi Leonard and John Wall have been ruled out for injury management, so Jackson should be asked to do a bit more of the heavy lifting.

That makes him a very appealing value at just $5,000 on FanDuel. He averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute last season, and he’s currently projected for just under 31 minutes in our NBA Models.

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Fast Break

Davion Mitchell is probably your best value option at the position on DraftKings. He’s coming off a clunker in Game 1, racking up just 11.75 DraftKings points in 25.8 minutes, but he was a strong per-minute producer as a rookie. He averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, so he doesn’t need much playing time to pay off his $4,400 salary.

The game between the Bucks and Rockets is expected to be one of the highest-scoring of the day. The 229.5-point total is tied for the top mark on the slate, and while there are some blowout concerns, the game has plenty of appeal if it stays competitive. Kevin Porter Jr. is someone worth considering for the Rockets. His price has crept up since the start of the year, but he’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and has played at least 33.9 minutes in both contests.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Jrue Holiday has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most valuable on Saturday. He’s priced at just $7,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should be asked to carry a significant workload for the Bucks to start the year. They’re currently without Khris Middleton, and Holiday was one of the biggest beneficiaries with Middleton off the court last season. He increased his usage rate by +4.8% in that situation, resulting in an average of 1.20 FanDuel points per minute.

Holiday didn’t make the most of his minutes in the first game of the year, but he’s in a fantastic bounce-back spot vs. the Rockets. They ranked dead last in defensive efficiency last season and played at one of the fastest paces in the league, which is an elite combination for fantasy purposes.

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Value

Let’s continue to take advantage of the value with the shorthanded Grizzlies. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Dillon Brooks have missed the first two games of the year, and both players will likely be out again. That opens the door for John Konchar, who has played at least 30 minutes in each of the first two games. Konchar has averaged a stout 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in those contests and posted an average Plus/Minus of +14.64.

Despite his success, Konchar has gotten -$300 cheaper on DraftKings for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Mavericks. That doesn’t make much sense, but I’m certainly not complaining.

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Fast Break

Paul George is another member of the Clippers who should see a boost in value with Leonard and Wall out of the lineup. He wasn’t great in the first game of the season, finishing with just 34.0 FanDuel points in 36.2 minutes, but he posted just a 22.7% usage rate. George is projected for closer to a 30% usage rate on Saturday, and he averaged 1.28 FanDuel points per minute last season. He’s another elite option on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

Marcus Smart isn’t the sexiest option on this slate, but he makes a ton of sense at just $5,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaged just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute to start the year, but he’s been closer to 1.00 in the past. He’s projected for around 34 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a strong buy-low candidate at his current price tag.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Most of the superstars on Saturday’s slate are better values on FanDuel than on DraftKings, but Jayson Tatum is the exception. He owns a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has had a fantastic start to the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, despite shooting just 28.3% from 3-point range. Overall, he’s averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute against two tough teams in the 76ers and the Heat.

The Magic figure to be a much easier test on Saturday. They’ve allowed 110.5 points per game to start the year, and they’re in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency.

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Value

The Cavaliers will be without Darius Garland on Saturday, which means Cedi Osman could move into the starting lineup. He started the second half in place of Garland on Wednesday, finishing with 23.25 DraftKings points over 27.7 minutes. He’s currently projected for closer to 31 minutes on Saturday’s slate, and he averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute last year.

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Fast Break

Norman Powell is another potential option for the Clippers. He played just 21.7 minutes in the first game of the year, but he did post a 29.0% usage rate. Powell is not shy about looking for offense, and he’s a candidate for significantly more playing time on Saturday. If he can get to around 30 minutes vs. the Kings, he has the potential to destroy his current price tag.

Michael Porter Jr. has been pretty quiet to start the year. He’s posted just an 18.5% usage rate, which puts him on pace for the lowest mark of his career. Of course, it’s only a two-game sample size, so there’s plenty of room for improvement moving forward. Porter has been a hyper-efficient scorer throughout his career, so some additional shot volume would give him plenty of fantasy value.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It doesn’t get much better than Giannis Antetokounmpo for fantasy purposes. He can do everything on a basketball court, giving him multiple paths to a big score. Giannis wasn’t hyper-aggressive in his first game of the season, posting just a 25.0% usage rate, but he made up for it with 13 rebounds, eight assists, and three blocks. He still finished with 58.75 DraftKings points, and not many players can do that with such modest usage.

The one concern with Giannis on Saturday is the blowout factor. However, Giannis has historically been solid as a comparable favorite. He’s averaged 56.6 DraftKings points in 93 games when favored by 10 to 15 points, and it’s only when the Bucks are favored by more than 15 that you start to see a decline (per the Trends tool). Even if this game turns into a blowout, there’s a good chance that Giannis will be the reason why. He’s capable of doing serious damage in less than 30 minutes, and he stands out as the top stud option in our NBA Models.

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Value

Alperen Sengun has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, and he should be in your lineups at one of those spots. He’s coming off the bench to start the year, but that’s not enough to stop him from being a dominant fantasy asset. He racked up 43.9 FanDuel points over 27 minutes on Friday, and he’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute this season. He should continue to see a solid handful of minutes regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, and he’s simply way too cheap at $5,000.

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Fast Break

Paolo Banchero has made quite a statement to start his rookie season. He’s displayed a balanced skill set, averaging 23.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks per game. Add it all up, and he’s averaged an outstanding 46.35 FanDuel points through his first two professional contests. His salary is up to $7,600 on FanDuel, but that’s still too cheap for the production he’s displayed. He leads all power forwards with 14 Pro Trends.

If you need a pure punt play, you could do a lot worse than Terry Taylor. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s not much more expensive on DraftKings. Taylor averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s started the past two games with Myles Turner out of the lineup.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo hasn’t had the best start to the season, but he’s an excellent option at just $7,100 on DraftKings. He managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in his last game despite five turnovers, and his scoring numbers are also down to start the year. Adebayo has talked about being more aggressive offensively this season, so if anything, his scoring numbers should be trending upwards.

Regardless, Bam has historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.50 with a comparable salary. He’s a prime candidate for some positive regression, even in a tough matchup vs. the Raptors.

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Value

Ivica Zubac played 35.4 minutes on opening night, and if that’s going to happen consistently, he has massive upside at his current salary. He averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he increased that figure to 1.34 in his first game this season. His minutes feel safer than usual with Leonard and Wall out of the lineup, and he draws an elite matchup vs. the Kings. There’s nothing not to like about him on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He leads all players in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

It took two games for Nikola Jokic to get his first triple-double of the season. He finished with 58.5 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Warriors, and he shouldn’t carry a ton of ownership on this slate. That’s always appealing for a superstar.

Domantas Sabonis is an attractive buy-low option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he’s historically been an elite fantasy producer on a per-minute basis. He didn’t put that on display in the first game of the year, but he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.23 with a comparable salary.