The 2016 St. Jude Classic
A week away from the U.S Open, the PGA Tour stops in Memphis, Tennessee, for the 2016 St. Jude Classic. This event is held at TPC Southwind, a Par-70 course that plays slightly over 7,200 yards. The chatter around this course is typically about its 10 water hazards, which have routinely caused TPC Southwind to lead the PGA Tour in balls hit into the water. There will be a premium on accuracy, due to the water and small greens, but golfers have been able to overcome some shaky iron play in the past. For instance, Ben Crane was victorious here in 2014, when he made up for his 30 missed greens by successfully scrambling for par on 25 of those occasions.
With most top-tier golfers electing to skip this event in preparation for next week’s major, we have a significantly weaker field than we had last week. Roster construction will be important. Be sure to keep an eye on your lineups, as it’s not uncommon for golfers to withdraw. Predicting a mid-round withdrawal is nearly impossible, but keep an eye on pre-round news if you are someone who likes to set lineups earlier in the week.
Let’s get into some recent course history. Here are the top-25 finishers from the last five years.
A glance across these leaderboards will show the diversity in styles among successful players in this event. Bryan Mears’ exploration into the statistics that are important for the St. Jude Classic also shows that there are multiple skill sets that can provide DFS success on this course.
Here are the golfers (excluding those not in this week’s field) who have at least three top-25 finishes since 2011.
The three highest-priced golfers in the field are represented above, as well as Camilo Villegas, who we will dive into a bit later.
$9,000 – $12,800
Dustin Johnson ($12,800) is the most expensive player in the field by $1,500, but his +$2,700 Salary Change from last week is well warranted, given the strength of this field. Dustin is playing incredible lately. Take a look at his field-best Recent Adjusted Round Score of 67.6. He hasn’t missed a cut all season and is coming off of a third-place finish at The Memorial, where he managed to hit 76.3 percent of his Greens in Regulation. Of course, we should remember that DJ withdrew last year with an ‘illness.’ I’m not sure of the medical term for his sickness, but I think it’s called “Starting bogey-bogey-bogey and making a mid-round decision to focus on the U.S Open.” I’m not a medical professional, but I wouldn’t be surprised this week to see a withdrawal by any of the projected U.S Open participants who get off to a cold start come down with an illness.
Greens in Regulation, Salary Change, and other premium metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Gary Woodland‘s ($10,400) Long-Term Driving Distance of 305.7 yards trails only Johnson’s in this range of salaries. Of course, finding the fairway with only 55.9 percent of those drives is cause for concern on a course with water hazards that swallow errant shots. He did show great control of the big stick at the Memorial, though, where he hit 41 of 56 fairways in regulation in route to a fourth-place finish. His salary is the highest that it has ever been, but this field is also one of the weakest fields of the season. With 12 Pro Trends, he is tied with Brooks Koepka ($11,100) for the most in the field.
Colt Knost ($9,700) has been a popular play for the past few weeks, but his most recent finish of 67th at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational was his worst since missing the cut at the Valspar Championship in early March. Whether or not that drives down his ownership is a thought to chew on throughout the week, but the real question is whether or not he is regressing. Knost’s DFS appeal is due to his stellar accuracy, as shown in his Recent-Form GIR of 74.3 percent. Though his most recent finish isn’t one that breeds confidence, his accuracy didn’t falter. In fact, he was still ranked first in Driving Accuracy and third in GIR for that event. Through his last four events, he has ranked in the top 10 in both Driving Accuracy and GIR.
$7,000 – $8,900
Brendan Steele ($7,900) has been impressive recently, with three top-20 finishes through his last four tournaments. His salary is $800 more than it was last week and $900 more than it was at The Players, but that’s not excessive considering the differences in field strength between those two events and the St. Jude Classic. Steele has played here twice since 2011, missing the cut both times, but he is currently in tip-top form: His Recent Adj Round Score of 68.4 is the best of any player priced below $10,000.
This week, Tim Wilkinson ($7,200) breaks into this range of salaries for only the second time, the first and only other instance being at the 2015 Wells Fargo. It is safe to say that the increase in price is overdue: His 72-percent Consistency, 55-percent Upside, and +10.3 Plus/Minus show that he has routinely either met or crushed his salary-based expectations this year. His course history shows three missed cuts, but he has made the cut in both of his appearances since 2011. With a Recent-Form Putts Per Round of 27.9, Wilkinson’s short game is on fire, and even more impressive is his Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.9, which is 2.2 strokes better than his Long-Term Adj Rd Score.
Dipping into the bottom of this tier, we could take a look at Ben Crane ($7,000), who won this event in 2014. Is he a pillar of consistency? No, but he is coming off of two top-30 finishes and has some solid history at this event. He has made nine cuts in his 10 appearances here, and his Course Adj Rd Score of 68.8 is the third-highest among players with at least two appearances in the past five years. He has made two of his last four cuts, but those four tournaments have netted him a recent strength of field rate of 91 percent. In a field as weak as this one, his course history alone makes him a standout at this price.
$5,400 – $6,900
Camilo Villegas ($6,900) will likely be the most popular option in this salary range due to stellar course history. Because of that, we will leave him out and explore two other options who may not be as highly owned.
Digging deep into the bottom of the salaries, we discover John Merrick ($6,200). Given his price, it’s hard to ignore that he has appeared at this event every year since 2009 and managed to make the cut in each of those appearances. His Long-Term DA of 67.7 percent would be impressive if it weren’t topped by him hitting 72.6 percent of his fairways through his last three tournaments. His 30.2 average PPR is gross, but he seems to putt better at this event, as he has averaged 28.6 Putts Per Round through his last seven appearances.
Lastly, Marc Turnesa ($5,500) could be worth a flier in large-field tournaments. As a member of a family infamous in the golfing world, Marc has mostly been a journeyman, playing a lot outside of the PGA Tour. He is a prior winner on Tour, though, and his accuracy — 70 percent LT GIR and 71.9 percent LT DA — should help him avoid trouble at TPC Southwind. Although most of his action is away from the stiff competition on the PGA Tour, he has made three of six cuts on Tour this season, and his Recent Adj Rd Score of 69.9 is solid enough for a guy with a near-minimum salary.
Long Off The Tee
Usually the video I leave you with comes to mind almost immediately, but not this week. I had to do some serious digging (roughly 60 seconds worth) to find this clip. It is just Phil Mickelson doing what he always does, making an unbelievable recovery after a bad break. That is, unless I roster him on my DFS team. In that case, he by no means makes this shot.
In all seriousness, though, this shot is unreal, considering the downhill lie and amount of green he has to work with. Enjoy.
Good luck this weekend!
