NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Oct. 16): Ezekiel Elliott or Tony Pollard?

NFL Week 6 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles starting at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Eagles are currently listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.0 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

These teams feature some marquee offensive players, but the defenses have dominated to start the year. Philly ranks fifth in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, while the Cowboys rank sixth in that department. However, both teams have been far more vulnerable against the run than against the pass.

That shouldn’t be an issue for Jalen Hurts. The Eagles’ signal-caller is a major threat with his legs, particularly when it comes to scoring touchdowns. He’s already racked up six rushing TDs through the first five weeks, which is tied for the second-highest mark in the league. He’s also averaged 53.2 rushing yards per game, so he’s averaging nearly 12.5 fantasy points per game just with his legs.

Additionally, Hurts is having the best year of his career with his arm. He’s averaged 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt, easily surpassing his previous career high of 7.1. He has just four passing touchdowns on the year, but his ability to punch in touchdowns on the ground helps make up for it.

Add it all up, and Hurts’ average of 26.2 PPR points per game trails only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson among quarterbacks.

The Cowboys’ defense might be able to slow Hurts down a bit, but he still stands out as the clear top option in THE BLITZ. He ranks first in median and ceiling projection by a considerable margin, and he’s tops on the slate in projected Plus/Minus as well.

A.J. Brown has served as Hurts’ top pass-catcher this season. He leads the team with a 29.6% target share and a 41% air yards share, both of which are solid marks for a top receiver.

However, it’s tough to justify his current price tag on DraftKings. $10,600 puts him in the upper echelon of fantasy receivers, and he hasn’t produced like one this year. He exploded for 28.5 DraftKings points in Week 1, but he’s managed 19.5 DraftKings points or fewer in each of the previous four games. Ultimately, the Eagles’ lack of touchdown passes makes it tough for Brown to pay off an elevated price tag.