Are you excited for another Denver Broncos primetime game? No? Well, suck it up. It’s happening. Denver hasn’t gotten off to the start they had hoped, sitting at 2-3 on the year after losing to the Colts 12-9 last week on Thursday Night. It’s not time to panic yet, but dropping to 2-4 would leave Denver with a big mountain to climb in a stacked AFC.
The Chargers aren’t in too different of a situation, sitting at 3-2 on the year and dealing with a bevy of injuries to key players, such as Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa, and Rashawn Slater. The Chargers would like to get somewhat of a cushion and get to two games above .500.
After a 2-0 night on Thursday Night, the player props have improved to 17-9 on the year. Let’s keep the win streak going!
With Daily Fantasy Sports increasing in popularity, different platforms are designing new and innovative ways for users to get in on the action. Enter Thrive Fantasy, a new way to enjoy DFS that blends large peer-to-peer GPP tournaments with the excitement of player props.
You can head straight to their prop lobby to pick your favorite player props or leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
You can read more about Thrive Fantasy and get a $250 bonus when you sign up.
Broncos-Chargers NFL Player Props
Joshua Kelley Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
Austin Ekeler has put together a solid start to the 2022 campaign as the leader of this Los Angeles backfield. He has over 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back weeks and has five touchdowns over the team’s last two games. Despite the solid performance, Ekeler doesn’t see the workhorse workload that some of the league’s other top backs do. He’s seen 48% of the team rush attempts on the year, including 45% and 52% in the past two weeks.
Behind Ekeler, Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel have both seen rushing work. They’ve both seen 18% of team rush attempts on the season, but it appears there’s finally been a shift toward Kelley. Just last week, Michel saw merely two snaps and had one carry. Meanwhile, Kelley appeared on 25% of the snaps and handled 32% of team rush attempts. He carried the ball ten times for 49 yards and a touchdown. Michel has been around the block a couple of times, and despite only being 27, he doesn’t have the same burst that Kelley does. It may be Kelley’s time to finally shift into the backup role instead of splitting time with Michel.
Even if Kelley doesn’t see an increased workload, he still has a solid chance of reaching his total. He’s exceeded 20.5 rushing yards in three of five games and has carried the ball at least four times in four of five games.
Our Player Prop Tool has this number at 28, showing plenty of value on the over.
Justin Herbert Under 266.5 Passing Yards
Taking the under on an elite quarterback is a scary proposition, but we’re not here for comfort. We’re here to look for value, and the under on Herbert’s passing prop is grading out well.
Herbert is coming off a down game, throwing for only 228 yards and one touchdown. He now gets his most difficult matchup of the year, as Denver ranks fourth in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA and second against the pass.
Herbert has exceeded this number in four of five games so far. However, this came against the fourth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. As stated before, this matchup is far more difficult for Los Angeles. First-year defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero loves to blitz opposing signal-callers, and Denver has the league’s fourth-highest sack rate and eighth-highest pressure rate. It’s been smooth sailing for Herbert when not blitzed, ranking fifth in passer rating at 108.7. When the opposing defense blitzes, Herbert drops to 78.7, ranking 28th in the league.
This trend has been constant in Herbert’s career, ranking 29th in passer rating against the blitz as a rookie and 19th in year two. Despite jumping from 29th to 19th, his 91.1 passer rating remained the same.
Herbert may also have trouble finding open receivers tonight. Keenan Allen is doubtful for this matchup with a hamstring injury, and Mike Williams will likely be followed around by Patrick Surtain II. Surtain has allowed only 143 yards on 31 targets and has the second-highest Pro Football Focus grade of all qualified corners.
Herbert went over this number in one of two games against Denver last year, throwing for 237 yards in a 21-point victory and for 303 yards in a 15-point loss in which they trailed the whole time.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 256.6, showing some value on the under.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
Week 4 NFL DFS Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
