For the second week in a row, bettors will have to endure a less-than-stellar Thursday Night Football matchup, pitting the 1-4 Washington Commanders against the 2-3 Chicago Bears. We are already six weeks into the season, and three days off doesn’t afford players enough time to get up to speed for the mid-week contest. That’s reflected in the total, which has dipped to 37.5 ahead of kickoff.
Still, we’ve identified a three-leg parlay using the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator that yields positive expected value for this NFC clash.
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Commanders vs. Bears Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Washington Team Total Under 19.5
The Commanders’ offense has the ferocity of a gaggle of puppies. The Carson Wentz-led group has the seventh-worst scoring offense and second-worst turnover margin in the NFL. Those issues could be compounded by injuries to Wentz and a short week to prepare for their matchup with the Bears.
Wentz is playing through biceps tendonitis, limiting his ability to move the ball downfield effectively. Injuries notwithstanding, the former second-overall selection has looked bad over the past few weeks, throwing for 211 or fewer yards in two of the past three weeks with a completion percentage of just 61.0%. Moreover, his touchdown to interception ratio is an ugly 3:3 over that stretch.
Poor quarterback play has sunk the Commanders in each of those matchups, scoring a cumulative 35 points since Week 3 and failing to surpass the 17-point threshold.
The Bears’ defense hasn’t been as intimidating as we’ve seen in years past, but they have been tasked with limiting some elite teams. The combined record of their opponents is 15-9-1, with four of five teams playing above .500. Still, Chicago has done well to limit the 49ers, Packers, Giants, and Vikings, leaving little doubt that they can contain the Commanders.
Brian Robinson Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
Brian Robinson is the feel-good story of the season and an early candidate for Comeback Player of the Year. Still, the rookie running back has to get up to game speed and remains a secondary option in the Commanders’ offensive schemes.
The former third-round pick made his NFL debut in Week 5, rushing the ball nine times for 22 yards. Robinson’s long rush for the day was a six-yard jaunt, elevating his yards per carry to a sub-optimal 2.4.
Whether out of choice or necessity, the Commanders are a pass-first offense, calling rushing plays a paltry 33.3% of the time, ranking third-last in the NFL. That leaves Robinson with fewer opportunities to get acclimated to the rigors of the NFL and get up to the 48.5 rushing yard threshold.
One game isn’t enough to properly assess Robinson’s capacity as a running back, but we’re not expecting any growth from him against the Bears. The running back is still recuperating from a significant injury and only has three days to prepare between outings.
According to the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, taking the under on Robinson’s rushing prop is the most pronounced advantage to play on Thursday Night Football.
Terry McLaurin Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
For better or worse, a wide receiver’s fantasy ceiling correlates with the quarterback he’s playing with. In Terry McLaurin‘s case, that’s not a good thing, as his metrics have taken a hit with Wentz under center.
Most notably, McLaurin’s targets per game have dropped, despite the Commanders throwing the ball much more frequently this year. The fourth-year wideout is averaging 6.6 targets per game, representing a 15.7% target share, down from last year’s benchmarks of 7.6 and 23.6%. That highlights Wentz’s preference to look in other directions in the passing game.
Further, Wentz’s biceps injury has prevented him from targetting McLaurin downfield. Passes 20 or more yards downfield helped McLaurin achieve success over the last couple of years, something Wentz cannot deliver on. McLaurin has just two receptions on six targets on deep passes in 2022, compared to ten receptions on 24 targets last year.
Curtis Samuel has emerged as the top threat in the passing game, and we’re not anticipating McLaurin to thrive with an injured quarterback on a short week. The under 54.5 receiving yards is a prop worth playing.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
There’s a substantive advantage in betting the three-leg parlay outlined above. According to the Parlay Simulator, the true odds for all three wagers hitting is +284, but FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an appealing +445, leaving bettors with a 7.7% advantage in this SameGame Parlay.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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