Surely we’ll see a better performance than last week’s 12-9 game between the Colts and Broncos, right? Well, I wouldn’t get too hopeful. The Commanders are traveling to Chicago to battle with the Bears. The Commanders currently sit as one-point favorites, with the total for the game at a measly 38.
The Bears have been feisty, sitting at 2-3 on the year after losing back-to-back one-possession games. The Commanders have been in a rut of their own, dropping four straight after starting the year with a victory against the Jaguars. After a 1-1 performance on Monday Night, the player props currently sit at 15-9 on the year.
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Commanders-Bears NFL Player Props
Carson Wentz Under 233.5 Passing + Rushing Yards
It’s been a rough start for the Carson Wentz era in Washington, as the Commanders have dropped four straight games, and Wentz is being called out by head coach Ron Rivera in press conferences. Wentz threw an interception at the goal line to lose last week’s matchup against the Titans.
Wentz has put up some solid yardage totals this year, with 374, 360, and 325 total yards in three different contests. His other two games were 233 and 175 total yards. Wentz’s three games in which he posted over 300 yards came in back-and-forth affairs or game scripts where they were heavily trailing.
Wentz is also battling a bicep strain in his throwing shoulder, which could make him less efficient. The matchup also isn’t that tasty, despite how it may seem. The Bears have allowed the 10th-fewest passing fantasy points per attempt and the fourth-fewest passing fantasy points per game. With injuries looming, and head coach Rivera questioning Wentz’s play, it isn’t unrealistic for him to get pulled.
Washington has also only been in the lead for 14.2% of their offensive snaps, which is 29th in the league. They have a greater chance of taking the lead tonight, which could lead to a more run-heavy game script. With Chicago being far more beatable on the ground than through the air, they’ll likely lean on the ground attack.
Our Prop Tool puts this number at 223.5, showing solid value on the under.
Justin Fields Under 14.5 Completions
Thursday Night’s game looks like a gross one on the surface, so let’s give out some gross picks! Despite the Bears leading for only 9.4% of their offensive snaps (31st in the league), they’ve still been hesitant to let Justin Fields drop back to pass. He’s attempted over 20 passes twice this season and has completed less than ten passes in three games.
The Bears want to keep the ball on the ground, as they’ve run the ball at least 24 times in every game. They’ve attempted a pass on 31%, 29%, 30%, 41%, and 47% of offensive snaps this year.
On top of not having much volume in the passing game, the Bears lack the weapons at receiver. Darnell Mooney is a solid pass-catching option, but besides that, it’s ugly. Equanimeous St. Brown was let go by the Packers, Dante Pettis has caught one of six targets on the year, and Velus Jones Jr. is a 25-year-old rookie still finding his footing.
The Bears are currently a one-point underdog, meaning we should see a close contest. With the Bears already trying to limit Fields’ passing numbers, a close game will lead to them leaning on the run.
Our Prop Tool has this number at 14.2, showing some slight value on the under.