NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Oct. 9): Buy Low on Joe Mixon

NFL Week 5 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point favorites in the AFC North showdown, while the total sits at 51.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game should be one of the most entertaining matchups of the week. Both of these teams can put points on the scoreboard, and the total is the top mark in Week 5.

Both teams also have plenty of big-time fantasy producers, starting with Lamar Jackson. Jackson has been the best quarterback in fantasy to start the year, averaging a ridiculous 29.8 fantasy points per game. That’s more than five additional points per game than Josh Allen averaged last year when he was the top-scoring quarterback.

Jackson remains the premier dual-threat quarterback in the league. He’s averaged 79.0 rushing yards through the first four weeks – nearly the same mark he averaged during his MVP season in 2019-20 – and he’s also scored two touchdowns. Jackson is also off to one of the best passing starts of his career. His 11 touchdown passes are tied for the league lead, and he’s averaged 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt.

Jackson is coming off a poor showing last week, and he draws another tough matchup this week. The Bengals have been outstanding against opposing quarterbacks to start the year, giving Jackson an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.8 on DraftKings.

Still, Jackson is not most quarterbacks. The Bengals also haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row at QB to start the year: Their first four matchups have come against Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush, Joe Flacco, and Teddy Bridgewater. Stopping those guys and stopping Jackson are completely different animals.

Jackson also benefits from this game being played in Baltimore. He’s historically done his best work in that split, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.44 in home games (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Jackson leads all players in THE BLITZ in both median and ceiling projection, and he owns the top projected Plus/Minus as well.