Not all Thursday Night Football games are created equal, and sometimes that means enduring less-than-stellar matchups. That’s the case in Week 5, as the methodical Denver Broncos host the underwhelming Indianapolis Colts. The Russell Wilson-led Broncos have scored 16 or fewer points in three of their first four contests, while a surprise victory over the Kansas City Chiefs is the only notch in the Colts’ belt this season.
Nevertheless, we’re endeavoring to make the most of TNF and finding our preferred SameGame parlay using ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator; We’ve keyed in on a trio of Broncos’ player props that yield plus-expected value.
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Colts vs. Broncos Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on the bets you’ve selected.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Russell Wilson Over 231.5 Passing Yards
Although the Broncos have prioritized the run game this season, we could see an increased reliance on the aerial attack after the loss of Javonte Williams. On Sunday, the second-year running went down with a season-ending knee injury, meaning the Broncos could turn to Wilson instead of overloading an ineffective Melvin Gordon.
Wilson’s tenure as a Bronco is off to a hot-and-cold start. In his two losses, he’s completed 68.7% of his passes for 288.5 yards. Conversely, his metrics take a big hit in wins, with Wilson completing just 53.1% of his throws for 201.5 yards. It’s tough to distinguish between cause and correlation this early in the season.
As such, we’re not placing too much weight on Wilson’s poor performances. We’re anticipating more consistent efforts from Wilson over the coming games while his metrics smooth out, supporting a return to career averages. It’s also worth noting that three of the Colts’ four opponents have surpassed the 230-passing-yard threshold.
According to our projections, there’s an 11% edge in backing the over on Wilson’s passing yards prop. We’re using that as a stepping-off point for our three-bet parlay, emphasizing improved play from Wilson in the passing game.
Melvin Gordon Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
The bar has been set low for Melvin Gordon’s receiving yards, but an increased workload and focused passing attack should help the Broncos’ lead back go over his receiving yards total.
Wilson tends to lean into his running backs in the passing game. Through the first four weeks of the season, Gordon and Williams have combined for 32 targets. Granted, Williams drew the lion’s share of those before going down with the knee injury, but Gordon will absorb most of the workload out of the backfield, including outlet passes and check-downs.
Moreover, Gordon has a knack for getting the most out of his receptions. The former first-round pick averages 6.1 yards per reception and has gone over 11.5 receiving yards in two of his four outings this season. Factoring in the increased looks he’ll get from Wilson reveals an edge worth playing on the over 11.5 receiving yards.
Russell Wilson Under 12.5 Rushing Yards
Based on ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, the most significant advantage on tonight’s slate lies in backing the under on Wilson’s rushing yard total. It’s the final leg of our three-bet parlay, as we take the plus-money on Wilson’s 12.5 rushing yard prop.
We saw a much more conservative Wilson in the season’s opening two weeks. Across those two games, Wilson toted the ball just three times for a combined five yards. Although he’s increased his rushing yard total in the past two games, culminating with a 29-yard rushing performance Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders, we’re expecting regression against the Colts.
Indianapolis has been effective at bottling up quarterbacks this season. Last week, they held Ryan Tannehill to nine rushing yards on five carries, which was the third time in four games in which opposing pivots were limited to 11 or fewer yards. The only quarterback to exceed that threshold was Patrick Mahomes, who took off for 26 yards in Week 3.
With the return of Shaquille Leonard to the Colts’ linebackers corps, rushing yards should be hard to come by for Wilson. That’s in addition to the anticipated decrease following last week’s season-best performance. All of that is cooked into our projections, which rate the under 12.5 rushing yards as the best-rated prop play for Thursday Night Football.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
This is one of the biggest edges we’ve played this season. According to the ScoreAndOdds, this three-pick parlay has true odds of +222. However, FanDuel Sportsbook has this three-leg parlay lined at +516, making this a must-play wager for the opening game of Week 5.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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