Like any healthy market, price fluctuations are expected for players in daily fantasy football. Exploring those fluctuations can often reveal bargain players to target after down weeks or players that are rising too high in price above future expectations.
Each week, we will analyze one player at each position that has notably increased and decreased in price.
Notable NFL DFS Price Increases
Ryan Tannehill, QB (Tennessee Titans) Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,500; Week 5 DraftKings Price $5,800
In a relatively calm week for quarterback price changes, Tannehill is one of the largest salary risers despite a negative Plus/Minus performance against the Colts in Week 4. He did complete over 80% of his passes and tossed two touchdowns, but 137 total passing yards is difficult to get all hot and bothered over.
Tannehill has just five touchdown throws on the season against three interceptions. Each of the past two seasons, he has added fantasy value with his legs by amassing over 250 rushing yards and seven scores. Through four weeks, he has just 20 yards with his feet for one touchdown.
The Commanders give up a positive Opponent Plus/Minus against quarterbacks, but expect a lot of Derrick Henry in this matchup. Carson Wentz and the Commanders offense have gone cold the last two Sundays and do not seem to have the horsepower currently to turn this one into a shootout.
Jamaal Williams, RB (Detroit Lions) Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,100; Week 5 DraftKings Price $6,500
Signs are not looking good for DeAndre Swift to return in Week 5 which leaves Williams as the primary back in the league’s highest-scoring offense. Yes, you read that right. The Detroit Lions have scored the most points in the NFL through four weeks. Unfortunately for them, they have also allowed the most points in the NFL.
Williams is third at the running back position in fantasy points in 2022 and leads the league with six rushing scores. Even with the salary increase, he is still a potential bargain as the 11th most expensive running back this week.
The New England defense is traditionally very strong against the run but has given up the seventh most rushing yards this season.
Assuming Swift sits another week, Williams is a solid start for fantasy owners this week to continue his hot start.
CeeDee Lamb, WR (Dallas Cowboys) Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,700; Week 5 DraftKings Price $7,000
Could Cooper Rush actually be better at the helm for the Cowboys than Dak Prescott? That may be a stretch, but Rush has certainly been better this season for Lamb’s fantasy totals.
Lamb has been a target machine all season, but the last two games with Rush starting have produced elite efficiency with 14 total catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Shockingly, his 97 yards receiving against the Commanders was the highest total he’s reached in a single game since last Halloween.
The Cowboys have one of the lowest implied point totals this week which may cap Lamb’s upside against the Rams. His salary increase has him hovering around fair value for week five.
T.J. Hockenson, TE (Detroit Lions) Week 4 DraftKings Price $4,100; Week 5 DraftKings Price $4,900
Scoring 40+ points in a week at the tight end position will spark a rally for any player’s stock. Hockenson had a career day in the Lions’ shootout against the Seahawks on Sunday with eight catches for 179 yards and two scores.
Let’s pump the brakes a bit on his future production. Hockenson scored just 24.20 DraftKings points total over his first three weeks. Being on the highest-scoring offense in the league is certainly helpful, but he has not shown the ability to consistently produce strong fantasy weeks over his career.
This week will be a test for the Lions offense against the tough Patriots defense. Aside from Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, fantasy owners are looking for life at the tight end spot. Hockenson may be worth a shot, but don’t expect anywhere close to last week’s fantasy totals.
Notable NFL DFS Price Decreases
Matthew Stafford, QB (Los Angeles Rams) Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,600; Week 5 DraftKings Price $6,400
The defending Super Bowl champion Rams were stymied Monday night against a solid 49ers defense. Stafford has yet to top 300 passing yards in a game this season and has been held without a touchdown pass over the last two games.
Cooper Kupp continues to be one of the best wide receivers in the game with a massive target share. He leads the NFL with 54 targets. The next highest Rams receiver in targets is newcomer Allen Robinson with 18.
Stafford needs to develop connections with his other targets to unleash his full potential in 2022. He gets a Dallas defense this week that has wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks with Micah Parsons constantly in the backfield and Trevon Diggs cleaning things up in the secondary.
Stafford’s salary may have dropped, but not far enough to be a value in week five.
Jonathan Taylor, RB (Indianapolis Colts) Week 4 DraftKings Price $8,800; Week 5 DraftKings Price $8,100
The consensus top fantasy running back for 2022, Taylor has been a massive disappointment for fantasy owners the past three weeks. The third-year star tailback led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns in 2021 but has just one so far in 2022. He managed just 42 rushing yards in week four, his lowest total in the past two seasons.
One of the largest salary drops we will see this season, Taylor has fallen from one of the two clear-cut highest-priced running backs (with Christian McCaffrey) down to the level of second-tier backfield options such as Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.
So far this season, the Colts offensive line has struggled to open holes or protect Matt Ryan. Taylor is still getting a massive workload with the fourth most carries on the season at the position, but his 4.0 yards per carry is well below his career marks.
He appears on track to play on Thursday after an ankle injury slowed him last week. Even if he plays, a “wait and see” approach may be wise for Taylor and the Colts.
Terry McLaurin, WR (Washington Commanders) Week 4 DraftKings Price $6,500; Week 5 DraftKings Price $6,200
The Ohio State product came into the season as the assumed No. 1 wideout for new Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz. After four weeks, that assumption is strongly in question.
Wentz has spread the ball around with five different Commanders receiving over 20 targets so far this season. Fellow Buckeye Curtis Samuel leads the team with 37 targets, and McLaurin barely edges him out in yards with 250. Running back J.D. McKissic even has five more receptions on the season than McLaurin.
Without the clear-cut target advantage and with rookie Jahan Dotson becoming a go-to red zone option, it’s tough for fantasy owners to trust McLaurin in lineups, even with the price drop.
Kyle Pitts, TE (Atlanta Falcons) Week 4 DraftKings Price $5,000; Week 5 DraftKings Price $4,400
Pitts’ value had signs of a rally with a strong week three performance, but week four relapsed into his long-term downtrend. His salary has dropped $1,300 since the start of the season, and that may not be far enough with his current production.
In three of the first four games of 2022, Pitts has scored less than four DraftKings points with a total of five receptions in those games. More worrisome is that his snap percentage decreased significantly in the past two weeks.
The Falcons have won two games in a row, and Marcus Mariota has attempted just 20 and 19 passes in those weeks. The winning recipe does not seem to involve Pitts, and until that recipe changes, he is a difficult start in lineups even at the discount price.
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