The Miami Dolphins have emerged as legitimate contenders. Wins over the Bills, Patriots, and a signature comeback victory against the Ravens have staked the Dolphins to a 3-0 start to the season and put them near the top of most power rankings. Now, they get to sharpen their fins against the defending AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, looking for their first 4-0 start since 1995.
However, the Bengals aren’t going down without a fight and will play to their strengths in this primetime AFC showdown. On that basis, we’ve highlighted our favorite correlated parlay from the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, looking to build off last week’s triumph.
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Dolphins vs. Bengals Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on the bets you’ve selected.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Joe Burrow Over 268.5 Passing Yards
The Bengals are asking more of Joe Burrow this season. The reigning Comeback Player of the Year was mostly ineffective through the first two weeks of the season but put in a more sincere effort in Week 3 against the Jets. We’re expecting Burrow to carry that momentum into Thursday Night Football and surpass his passing yards prop.
Burrow is maximizing his pass attempts early this season, throwing the ball 36 or more times in each of the first three contests. That increase is also reflected in the percentage of passing plays that the Bengals are calling, turning to the air on 61.7% of play calls. Burrow’s adjusted yards gained per pass attempt has increased weekly and should continue its upward trend against the Dolphins.
Miami has given up the second-most passing yards per game this season, allowing an average of 297.7. That contributes to our projections, which show an edge in taking the over on Burrow’s 268.5 passing yard total.
Joe Mixon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Although he’s not the premier receiving option in Cincinnati, Joe Mixon has been a prominent fixture in the passing game. According to the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, the most significant edge in a receiving yard total lies in taking the over on Mixon’s receiving yards prop. More importantly, Mixon’s total correlates strongly with the aforementioned Burrow prop.
Mixon has failed to move the ball consistently on the ground this season. The Pro Bowler is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, falling below 58 rushing yards in two of three games. Still, he’s been a safety blanket for Burrow and has drawn 20 targets, hauling in 13 for 103 yards.
With an increased emphasis on the aerial attack, the Bengals are looking for more players to step into bigger roles. Mixon has absorbed the increased workload and should sail over his receiving yards total.
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
Superficially, it’s tough to reconcile backing the 1-2 Bengals as -3.5 home chalk against the Dolphins, but there are a few factors worth considering ahead of this matchup. Specifically, the Dolphins are operating above expected efficiency levels and should see a reversal of fortunes over the coming weeks.
Through three games, Miami has given up the second-most yards but ranks in the top half of the league in scoring defense. As those metrics balance out, we should see teams have more luck in scoring against the Fins. Similarly, they are overachieving offensively, although the difference is less pronounced. Altogether, the Dolphins average 0.1 net yards per play, which is incompatible with their +19-point differential and 3-0 record.
Turnovers have limited the Bengals’ success this season, with the team turning the ball over six times through three games, with a -1 ratio. Nevertheless, they run more offensive plays than any other team and should start to see their yards per game improve towards expected totals.
Based on our projections, there’s an advantage in backing the Bengals to cover at home against the Dolphins. That aligns with our analysis, as the Dolphins’ luck should run out on Thursday night.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
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Bettors have a substantive edge in backing the three-bet parlay. Our projections indicate that the implied probability of the bet is +400, while locking into it as a SameGame parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook comes with a +507 price tag. That leaves an implied 5.3% advantage in the bettor’s favor.
Happy sweating and good luck!
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