As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players long term.
Each week in 2022, I’ll look at the winning lineup in DraftKings Millionaire Maker Contest with an eye for how the lucky winner arrived at the lineup that took it down. Rather than going through every position, we’ll focus on key lessons that can be learned — and maybe even some mistakes worth avoiding.
While a high degree of positive variance is necessary to win a contest of this size (Week 3’s $20 contest had over 236,000 entrants), there’s still a large amount of skill involved to get to a position to benefit from that variance.
Here’s Week 3’s winner, using the FantasyLabs Contest Dashboard Tool to provide more data about that user’s play.
The Lineup
“abedollars” is the lucky winner this week, taking down the million-dollar first prize with just six total lineups. It was a close one in Week 3, edging out second place by just 1.2 points. With top-heavy contests like this, a point or two can make a big difference — second place walks away with “only” $100,000.
The Stack
We’re back to a single-stack this week with Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. We’ve discussed the relative merits of various stack arrangements in this space this season. I’m fairly convinced at this point that single stacks are the way to go.
What’s unique this week is the lack of a bring-back. Much like double stacks, the field tends to force a player from the opposing team onto their rosters. This makes sense to a degree, as we need the opposing team to put up a solid score for our main stack to hit — Jackson wouldn’t have played all four quarters if the score was 37-0 instead of 37-26.
However, just like abedollars did, we should use some nuance in deciding whether to utilize members of the opposing team. New England spreads the ball around a lot, especially on the ground — where they’re more successful offensively. It’s entirely possible for them to put up a lot of points without a useful DFS score in the group.
It’s also notable how low-owned the Jackson-Andrews stack was. They’re both the highest scorers at their respective positions through Week 3 — as they were coming into the week. Despite that, Josh Allen and Irv Smith drew way more ownership.
While quarterback is somewhat predictable, Jackson was still projecting as a top option last week and in retrospect was an obvious leverage play.
Tight ends, on the other hand, are very high variance. Much like defenses, we should essentially never play the most popular option — with a possible exception if they fit your lineups stack. Getting Andrews (or Travis Kelce) at low single-digit ownership will almost always be a +EV move. Those two have considerably higher ceilings than anyone else at the position (with the possible exception of Kyle Pitts) regardless of matchup.
One-Off Plays
Rather than dive into every play, let’s take a look at two that went right for abedollars: Mack Hollins and Devonta Smith.
The low ownership on Hollins came as a surprise this week, as he seemed like a fairly obvious play. He was just $3,300 but was projecting very well with Hunter Renfrow missing from the Raiders lineup. He drew eight targets in Week 2 with Renfrow missing part of the game.
As expected, he had a very solid workload, drawing ten targets total. Turning those into eight catches for 158 yards and a score was probably a 98th percentile outcome, but the process was extremely sound. I played Hollins on 100% of my tournament lineups in Week 3, as he provided much-needed salary relief.
Even if you expected Hollins to be somewhat chalky (as I did) he’s still a strong play. When $3,300 chalk fails, it’s entirely possible to still take down GPPs. Where it’s not possible is when expensive chalk fails. Keep that in mind moving forward — it’s OK to eat cheap chalk.
Smith on the other hand is a bit harder to explain. He’d seen just 11 targets in the Eagles’ first two games, despite Philadelphia putting up over 60 points in those contests. In Week 3, he turned 12 targets into an 8/169/1 line.
It was a great call from abedollars, who used Smith on just one of their six lineups.
The Chalk
The chalkier plays in this lineup were Jaylen Waddle, Leonard Fournette, and the Jaguars Defense. Interestingly enough, none had great games for abedollars in Week 3.
Waddle was solid with an 18.10-point score, but nothing spectacular. Still, a solid play though, as the Bills had tons of defensive injuries, and it was likely that Miami got a big score from someone. This game surprisingly only resulted in 40 points, but Waddle managed to sneak past the 100-yard mark and salvage a reasonable fantasy day.
Fournette was the top projected running back in Pts/Sal for Week 3 but ended up with a relatively disappointing total. I thought Fournette was a relatively poor tournament play given his likely ownership and limited ceiling. While his workload was likely to be solid, the offensive environment for Tampa was pretty poor with all of the top wide receivers missing.
Of course, the running back position in general looked terrible heading into Week 3. It ended up being nearly as bad as expected, so getting “only” 12 points from Lenny didn’t really hurt this lineup. If anything, pivoting from the back with the highest ownership projection, David Montgomery, was a lifesaver. While Lenny’s 12 points were a letdown, Montgomery got hurt and scored only 1.1, torpedoing the lineups that used him.
Finally, abedollars ate the chalk on the Jaguars defense. They were projected to be much lower owned though, so I’ll give them a pass. (Which, along with the million dollar check, is surely a great consolation to abedollars.) The Jaguars played in the 4:00 p.m. window, and it seemed increasingly likely that the Chargers would be using a backup quarterback against them.
Justin Herbert ended up playing, and the Jaguars put up a goose egg. However, there were no other 4:00 p.m. window defenses at or below the Jaguars price point, so finding a late swap was impossible for abedollars. In the future, leaving an extra $100 in the lineup would probably be wise when we’re waiting on news like this. It would’ve been worth four points to pivot up to the Cardinals, the next cheapest team in the late window.
The Sleepers
Outside of the main stack, Allan Lazard was the sneaky play that made this lineup work. With tons of injuries to Packers receivers, he was the de facto WR1 for Green Bay. Given how many teams pass against Tampa Bay, that made him a strong play.
Personally, I preferred Romeo Doubs, who cost just $3,800 and scored seven extra points. While I had some Doubs exposure in Week 3, I didn’t wake up on Monday a million dollars richer, so perhaps I shouldn’t criticize.
Either way, the process was solid. Cheap wideout on a team with an MVP quarterback in a pass-heavy game script, all at sub-2% ownership.
It’s pretty easy to see why this one worked out.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Understanding Ceiling Projections for NFL DFS Tournaments
NFL DFS Trenches Report: Which Lines Have an Advantage in Week 1?
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Chargers vs. Chiefs
Steelers-Browns Same Game Parlay: NFL Player Prop Picks, Over/Under, More, Using Parlay IQ for Thursday Night Football
