NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Rams vs. 49ers

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer and Matt LaMarca’s in-depth Showdown breakdown.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Rams vs. 49ers Showdown

On paper, this game looks very narrow and straightforward. I think more so than maybe any showdown slate this season it presents a real decision in terms of how you want to play. I am going to write this article from a true optimal standpoint, but keep in mind it likely comes with lots of dupes and a lower than typical ceiling this week.

It should be easy to get different, but it involves holding your nose and playing more running backs and a lot less Cooper Kupp. These two defenses have been some of the best at limiting opponents’ rushing attacks, and neither team has been particularly adept at running the ball this season.

Cooper Kupp has torched the 49ers to the tune of an average of 31 DraftKings points per contest over the last three meetings. He is head and shoulders the top projected play from this game and is clearly the most likely optimal captain.

My strategy will be to lean into him as the best play here and then add on a small chunk of lineups to cover for injury or other scenarios where his production shockingly goes sideways.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

We are obviously pairing Captain Kupp with at most one Rams pass catcher.

Deebo Samuel’s unique hybrid usage means that he interacts with his teammates in unconventional ways. Considering his production can come from rushing or receiving this is how I am going to handle lineups with him at Captain:

As usual pair Captain QB with at least two pass catchers from the same team.

Player Groups

The standard rule of max two kickers and defenses applies.

• Max 1 of Brandon Powell, Kendall Blanton, Tutu Atwell.
• Max 1 of Ross Dwelley, Kyle Juszczyk, RayRay McCloud.

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Cooper Kupp

Secondary Targets

• Deebo Samuel
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Allen Robinson
• George Kittle
• Jeff Wilson Jr

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Cam Akers
• Darrell Henderson Jr
• Matthew Stafford