At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
It was another low-scoring week in the NFL, with nine of the 16 contests staying under the total and a paltry average of just 40.6 points per game. Still, we’re expecting more offenses to come to life in Week 4.
Currently, scoring metrics are incompatible with the yardage totals. Basically, given how far the ball is moving downfield, we’d expect more points to end on the board. That implies that teams’ luck should start changing and high-scoring weeks are on the horizon.
Leonard Fournette (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Week 3 Snap Count 59/65 (90.7%)
Leonard Fournette failed to deliver a meaningful fantasy performance again in Week 3, despite playing a season-high 90.7% of the offensive snaps. However, there are a few factors contributing to an expected improved effort from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back in Week 4.
First, the Bucs were trailing from the outset against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, down 14-3 for much of the first half. Consequently, there was an increased emphasis on the passing game as Tampa tried to get yards in big chunks to decrease the deficit. Second, with Chris Godwin unlikely to return to the lineup any time soon, the Bucs would be wise to focus on the running game to take pressure off Tom Brady. Lastly, Fournette is better than the 2.8 yards per carry that we’ve seen from him over the last couple of weeks.
Fournette’s usage is on the rise, but his fantasy totals are on the decline. That disconnect implies that the sixth-year back is a highly-rated progression candidate over the coming weeks, as his production metrics balance with expected fantasy output.
Fournette squares off vs. the Chiefs on Sunday night so he won’t be a decision point for DFS players on Week 4’s main slate.
Aaron Jones (RB, Green Bay Packers) – Week 3 Snap Count 39/62 (62.9%)
For the past few seasons, the Green Bay Packers have deployed their running backs in a tandem role. Although Aaron Jones has taken on an increased role with the team early this season, we’re expecting to see less from the former Pro Bowler moving forward.
Week 3’s effort was Jones’ highest snap count of the season, taking to the field for 62.9% of the offensive plays. Still, Jones has yet to out-carry A.J. Dillon this season and has a diminished role in the passing game. Through the first three games of the season, Jones is commanding an insignificant 12.9% target share. The most condemning stat is that Jones has been targetted more than Dillon just once so far this season, highlighting Aaron Rodgers’ preference for Dillon over Jones in the passing and run schemes.
Over the latter half of last season, Jones played more than 56.0% of snaps just once. He’s been over that through the first three games of this season, but the underlying metrics suggest that Dillon should start cutting into that playing time.
Davante Adams (WR, Las Vegas Raiders) – Week 3 Snap Count 70/70 (100.0%)
Chemistry doesn’t come easily or quickly, but Derek Carr needs to find a way to get on the same page as Davante Adams. The recently acquired wide receiver played every snap on offense against the Tennessee Titans, again failing to make a fantasy impact for the Las Vegas Raiders.
Adams has played no fewer than 94.8% of the snaps in any contest this season and as expected, is drawing the lion’s share of the looks in the passing game. The two-time All-Pro has surpassed 10 targets in two of three contests, for a 28.1% target share. Still, Adams has hauled in just 41.2% of the targets over the last two weeks for a laughable 48 yards.
It’s evident that the Raiders are doing everything they can to get Adams more involved in their contests, but the wideout remains frustrated with the early-season outcomes.
Every metric points towards an improved effort from Adams and it’s just a matter of time before he and Carr figure things out.
Dallas Goedert (TE, Philadelphia Eagles) – Week 3 Snap Count 45/70 (64.3%)
It’s only fitting that we follow up on last week’s analysis of Zach Ertz with Dallas Goedert. The Philadelphia Eagles tight end was limited by a shin injury in Week 3 but has been an afterthought in this year’s offensive game plans.
Goedert left early against the Washington Commanders on Sunday, only to return and take on a reduced role in the fourth quarter. Even if the injury fully resolves in time for Week 4’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it’s unlikely Goedert assumes a bigger role.
The former second-round pick has been targetted just 14 times through the first three games of the year, with a decreased snap count week after week. Goedert was on the field for 92.2% of snaps in Week 1, 83.5% in Week 2, following that up with 64.3% against the Commanders. In 2021, Goedert played 93.0% of snaps in eight of the last 10 games but has yet to surpass that benchmark this season.
DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown have been the top two receiving options for Hurts and the Eagles, and Goedert’s fantasy ceiling is worse because of it.
Overall, Goedart’s 23.7% target share per routes run ranks fourth on the Eagles.
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