An action-packed Week 3 comes to an end on Monday Night Football as the Dallas Cowboys travel to New York to play the Giants. The Giants are favored by one point, with the total at a measly 39. Thankfully, the bar is pretty low for this matchup to overcome last night’s stinker between the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers.
After a 1-1 night last Thursday in the player props, the record sits at 11-2 on the year. Hopefully, we can keep racking up the wins, as Monday night is full of some edges to exploit.
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Cowboys-Giants NFL Player Props
Cooper Rush Over 207.5 Passing Yards
Taking the over on a backup quarterback? Yes, that’s exactly what we’re doing. Cooper Rush led Dallas to a surprising victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, throwing for 235 yards in the process. Rush also started one game for Dallas in 2021, in which he threw 325 yards in an upset victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
The Cowboys’ running game struggled in both of these contests, which doesn’t seem like a coincidence. With Prescott out of the lineup, defenses are dialed in on stopping the Cowboys’ running game. They’d rather force a backup quarterback to beat them than allow Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to run all over them.
The Giants sold out to stop Derrick Henry in Week 1, limiting him to under four yards per carry. That allowed Ryan Tannehill to let it rip, throwing for 266 yards. New York limited Baker Mayfield the next week, allowing only 145 yards through the air. However, the Panthers’ offense is pretty incompetent, so I’m not placing much weight on what they do.
Michael Gallup will most likely miss this contest, as he’s still recovering from his torn ACL this past season. Dalton Schultz also looks like a true game-time decision, and his absence would hurt Rush’s outlook slightly. However, CeeDee Lamb still has the talent to win on the outside, and Rush has built up a rapport with Noah Brown. Regardless of Schultz’s outlook, we’re still confident in Rush.
Our Player Props tool projects Rush closer to 215, with Chris Raybon’s Pro Model having him up at 225. Rush’s over has some solid value tonight.
Tony Pollard Under 60.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
This prop may correlate somewhat negatively with Rush’s over, but we expect Pollard to struggle mightily on the ground. Elliott still has the lead role in this backfield, handling 57% of the team rush attempts to only 34% for Pollard. Elliott has also run a route on 47% of team dropbacks, as opposed to 34% for Pollard.
Pollard has seen nine targets through the air through two weeks, including seven in Rush’s previous start. However, Pollard’s monstrous 32% targets per route run is unsustainable, and the Bengals didn’t have much tape to go off to gameplan for a Rush-led offense. The Giants will be waiting on the dump-offs and swarming to prevent Pollard from creating big plays.
Pollard only appeared on 39% of snaps in Week 2 after playing 55% in Week 1. Dallas was massively trailing in Week 1, which may have led to an increase in Pollard’s time. If Dallas employs a similar split to last week, Pollard will need to be hyper-efficient on his touches to eclipse his yardage total.
Our Player Props tool has Pollard’s number at 52.6, showing plenty of value on the under.
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