Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Jose Fernandez, MIA
Not only has Fernandez exceeded salary-based expectations by 12.78 points over his last five games, his 34.1 average in that span is higher than any other pitcher today. Such performances have allowed him to produce a 100 percent Consistency in the last month. As for today, note that his 11.98 strikeouts per nine innings rate has a 2.03 differential over the next closest at his position. Fernandez has also limited opponents to a batted-ball distance 16 feet shorter than his yearly average lately. And that’s just in defense of him at DraftKings. At FanDuel, his 98 percent Bargain Rating speaks for itself.
Gerrit Cole, PIT
Don’t allow the Angels’ projected .206 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) to take you off of Cole. After all, his 96 Park Factor (the highest among pitchers) just so happens to match his Bargain Rating at DraftKings. The discount there has actually allowed him to match Jose Fernandez’s nine percent Dud rate this season. It also helps that Cole has allowed a 170-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, which is notably shorter than either Fernandez’s or Jake Arrieta’s.
Jake Arrieta, CHC
No matter the matchup, Arrieta’s slate-low Dud rate always offers a safety net. Fernandez has averaged 10.1 more DraftKings points over the last month, but Arrieta’s 72 percent Consistency on the year is still the highest among pitchers today. His 84-MPH exit velocity allowed in the last 15 days is the lowest. His ceiling in this slate might not be the highest, but take solace in the fact that his double-digit Pro Trends are currently taking in 92 percent of moneyline bets.
Aaron Nola, PHI
Whereas Arrieta’s aforementioned Pro Trends lead his position at DraftKings, Nola has as many Pro Trends at FanDuel (due in part to his 95 percent Bargain Rating there). In fact, his savings there have allowed him to achieve a 60 percent Consistency over the last month. For reference, he’s met expectations in only 20 percent of his games in that span at DraftKings. Still, Nola’s matchup against the Brewers is one of the best of the day given their projected .297 SO/AB.
Justin Verlander, DET
Verlander’s salary has risen to its highest point of the 2016 season, but his Consistency recently, as shown in the following widget, warrants such:
His 29.7 DraftKings points over the last month are also 5.7 more than Arrieta has recorded in that span. Fortunately, FanDuel has yet to catch on that Verlander is easily one of the safer pitchers to roster at this time — at least that’s what I’m left to assume given his 99 percent Bargain Rating there. Chicago’s .276 SO/AB rate is also ranked bottom-six among offenses today.
Pitchers to Exploit
Jon Moscot, CIN
I realize it was only one game, but it’s still impressive to see Moscot’s 311-foot batted-ball distance allowed in his previous start. Although similar results would be hard to come by, his -6.8 Plus/Minus this season remains noteworthy. He’s also received only 16 percent of moneyline bets today. And as if you needed any other reason to target him, his 3.16 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) rate in the past year is 1.12 higher than anyone else in this slate.
Wily Peralta, MIL
Only Drew Smyly recorded fewer DraftKings points than Peralta in May (among pitchers available today, anyway). Now slated to face a Phillies offense with a respectable .294 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), note that Peralta’s 93-MPH exit velocity allowed recently is also bottom-three today. His -5.5 Plus/Minus this season leads only Moscot’s.
C
James McCann, DET
Despite failing to meet salary-based expectations in six of his last eight performances, McCann’s 93-MPH exit velocity is still top-10 among catchers. He’s also slugging .535 against left-handed pitching. If anything, he’s considered a value since it’s not too often a player priced at $2,800 includes the highest wOBA Differential among other starters at his position.
1B
Tommy Joseph, PHI
Joseph has a -.206 wOBA Differential versus right-handed pitching, but his .206 ISO is still ranked in the top 15 at first base. With an average of 9.6 FanDuel points over the last month, it’s certainly worth rostering him there given his 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s also expected to bat cleanup for a Phillies offense with the second-highest Team Value Rating tonight.
2B
Jason Kipnis, CLE
Chris Young’s 2.04 HR/9 in this slate would easily be the highest if not for the presence of Jon Moscot. Still, Young’s 227-foot batted-ball distance allowed from Kansas City’s bullpen recently is bottom-four tonight. Kipnis’ wOBA Differential against right-handers is conveniently top-10 among second basemen.
Rob Refsnyder, NYY
Assuming Refsnyder continues starting in place of Teixeira, note his .313 ISO Differential. He’s also slugging .750 against right-handed pitching. His 12.6 FanDuel points over his last three starts is seventh-best in the past month, which seems insane given that he’s still priced at $2,200 there.
3B
Luis Valbuena, HOU
Valbuena has a 94 percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, but that’s not the only reason he’s here. He’s also recorded a hard-hit rate six percentage points higher in the last 15 days. Despite a .202 ISO versus right-handed pitching, he’ll likely be one of the lesser-owned players in any Houston stack.
SS
Danny Espinosa, WSH
Manny Machado is the only shortstop that has hit the ball farther than Espinosa over the last 15 days. Machado, however, has negative differentials versus left-handed pitching. The Nationals aren’t implied to score the most runs today solely for this reason, but it certainly helps that Espinosa has averaged a hard-hit rate 13 percent higher recently.
OF
Michael Saunders, TOR
Saunders’ .630 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching trails only Carlos Gonzalez’s (.659) among outfielders. Saunders has failed to meet expectations by -0.10 points in his last 10 games, but note his 228-foot batted-ball distance, the same as Mike Trout’s, in that span. Also note Eduardo Rodriguez’s 63 percent fly-ball rate allowed in his previous start.
Odubel Herrera, PHI
Herrera has averaged only .024 home runs per at-bat this season, but don’t let that distract you from his performance of late. For instance, he’s hit the ball 15 feet farther than his yearly average in as many days. He’s also averaged a 94-MPH exit velocity in that span, which is equivalent to other notable hitters such as J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce (among others).
J.D. Martinez, DET
Jose Quintana has allowed a hard-hit rate 16 percent over his yearly average recently. Not that Martinez needs the help: His exit velocity is top-five among outfielders. He also has a .315 ISO versus southpaws, which trails only Adam Duvall’s (.344), Carlos Gonzalez’s (.341), and Michael Saunders’ (.333) in this slate.
Weather Watch
There’s a better-than-average chance that Yankees-Orioles is postponed this afternoon since thunderstorms are expected to remain in the area until tonight. Same goes for Brewers-Phillies, which isn’t showing any signs of letting up at the moment. White Sox-Tigers has a similar chance of inclement weather, but there are at least windows in which they might be able to fit it in.
Good luck!
