Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg, WSH
Strasburg has averaged only 0.2 more DraftKings points than Chris Sale in the past month, but note the former’s 79-percent Consistency this season. That’s higher than even Clayton Kershaw has managed. Strasburg’s 11.70 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) are also the highest among pitchers today, and he’s facing a Cincinnati team with .266 projected strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). It’s hard not to like a guy receiving 86 percent of moneyline bets.
Chris Sale, CWS
Strasburg’s SO/9 might be the highest, but Sale’s 11.13 aren’t too far behind. He also has the benefit of facing a Tigers offense with the second-highest projected SO/AB today. Furthermore, if Miguel Cabrera (questionable) misses the game, that would remove from the lineup his .176 SO/AB (seventh-best among first basemen) and instead throw into the fire Andrew Romine (.256 SO/AB). Mother nature will also be in Sale’s corner, as he should benefit from the wind blowing in at nine miles per hour as well as the lowest humidity in today’s slate.
Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
Sale and Strasburg have produced more DraftKings points in the last month, but Hellickson has quietly averaged a higher Consistency than either. That’s likely due to the fact that, in that span, opponents (per our advanced stats) have averaged a batted-ball distance 35 feet shorter than their yearly average against him. Additionally, in his last two starts, his hard-hit rate allowed has dropped by 10 percentage points. I wouldn’t be too concerned with his rather high home runs per nine innings allowed, since the matchup is all too good to pass on. After all, Milwaukee’s projected .293 SO/AB are the highest today.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
The Braves’ struggles against lefties are known. To their credit, a 23.4-percent strikeout rate against said handedness isn’t too bad, but they bottom out everywhere else. Their .258 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is 0.014 lower than Philadelphia’s. They’re still the only offense with an Isolated Power (ISO) under .100.
But that’s not all.
Kershaw is currently a -406 favorite, giving him the highest moneyline in the last two seasons. The previous high was when he closed at -370 against the Reds last month. In fact, that was the second time Kershaw had been a -370 favorite since 2015. And his results in those instances? Per our free Trends tool, a ‘meager’ (read: exceptional) +22.28 Plus/Minus. As if that weren’t enough, no team has been implied to score fewer than 2.0 runs in that span. Atlanta is currently implied to score 1.9.
Pitchers to Exploit
Edwin Escobar, ARI
I wouldn’t expect Escobar to finish once again with -10.3 DraftKings points (not a mistype), but his matchup today isn’t any better than his first time out. In fact, the Cubs have a higher wOBA and, unfortunately for Escobar, against left-handers they strike out in 6.1 percent fewer at-bats than the Astros (his first opponent). He was also tagged for a 53-percent hard-hit rate in his first start, which qualifies as the highest allowed by any pitcher today.
Mike Pelfrey, DET
Pelfrey is the lowest-Rated pitcher in our Bales Model for obvious reasons. Not only has he failed to meet salary-based expectations by 4.7 points this season, but his 29-percent Consistency is far and away the lowest among qualified pitchers. If it weren’t for Escobar, Pelfrey’s 1.73 WHIP would also be the highest today. Don’t be fooled by his 89-MPH recent exit velocity allowed: He has a 40-percent Dud rate despite being priced as a reliever in the last month.
Kendall Graveman, OAK
The Astros are one of only three teams striking out in greater than 25 percent of their at-bats against righties, but Graveman is averaging only 6.96 SO/9. More notable is Houston’s .174 ISO, since Graveman has allowed 1.46 HR/9 in the last year. He has also averaged 6.0 DraftKings points over the past month, leading only Michael Wacha (5) and Andrew Cashner (5.1) in that span.
Bud Norris, ATL
Even from Atlanta’s bullpen, Norris has allowed a 224-foot batted-ball distance in his last five appearances. It’s bad enough that, with 1.68 HR/9, he’s second only to Josh Tomlin tonight, but he also has a bottom-two hard-hit rate allowed (36 percent) over the last year. The Dodgers additionally have a projected .309 wOBA this evening.
Michael Wacha, STL
Wacha is definitely a flamethrower — and, no, that is not a reference to any track on Triple F Life — but he has been scorched by opponents over the last month and has consequently seen a -$2,400 Salary Change. Just note his aforementioned average of 5.0 DraftKings points in the last month. He also has yet to reach his Upside in any outing this season. Even worse is that the Giants don’t strike out against righties, as shown by their projected .207 SO/AB.
C
Stephen Vogt, OAK
There are players at his position with a much higher slugging percentage, but Vogt’s .097 ISO Differential is still top-six among catchers in the early slate. His 24-percent line-drive rate in the last 15 days is tied for top-four. Coincidentally, Colin McHugh’s line-drive percentage allowed in that span is bottom-five.
Matt Wieters, BAL
Wieter’s recent 196-foot batted-ball distance isn’t impressive. But his 47-percent Consistency in the last month is top-four among catchers tonight. The BvP crowd should also be pleased about this suggestion, since Wieters has hit .351 and five home runs against Ivan Nova throughout his career.
1B
Jose Abreu, CWS
It’s odd to find Abreu here, given his -4.29 Plus/Minus in the last six games, but none of that tends to matter against Mike Pelfrey. Have confidence in the fact that over the last two weeks Abreu’s hard-hit rate has increased by 14 percentage points. His .088 ISO Differential is also top-eight among first basemen in the early slate.
Chris Davis, BAL
Davis’ average of 7.3 DraftKings points in the last month isn’t all too high, but his slugging percentage against righties (.613) is. In fact, he’s one of only two first basemen slugging over .600 against said handedness. More notable still is his .191 ISO Differential, which sits atop his position.
Eric Hosmer, KC
David Ortiz and Miguel Cabrera are the only first basemen who have averaged more DraftKings points than Hosmer has over the last month. However, neither can say that they have as good of a matchup today, given Josh Tomlin’s slate-high 1.77 HR/9. Hosmer is also quietly slugging .525, which is second only to Chris Davis’ mark in the main slate.
2B
Daniel Murphy, WSH
Trea Turner is listed in the shortstop portion of this preview if only to free up a spot for Murphy, who has a .563 slugging percentage. His .235 ISO against right-handed pitching trails only Rob Refsnyder’s (.538) and Jurickson Profar’s (.300) at second base. Neither, however, have as high of a batted-ball distance (219 feet) in the past 15 days.
Neil Walker, NYM
In the last 15 days, Walker has hit the ball 11 feet farther than he usually does, which has ultimately led to his having a top-four batted-ball distance among second basemen this afternoon. It also helps that his .495 slugging percentage will now be matching up with Justin Nicolino’s slate-high exit velocity allowed.
Chase Utley, LAD
Despite failing to meet salary-based expectations in his last five games, Utley has produced a +2.39 Plus/Minus over his last 10. His average of 10.4 FanDuel points in the last month is also top-six in the main slate. His .122 wOBA Differential is more than viable against Bud Norris, who has allowed 2.45 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season.
3B
Pedro Alvarez, BAL
Alvarez is strictly a third basemen at FanDuel, where he holds the most value anyway. Just note his 86-percent Bargain Rating, which keeps him priced at only $2,600. Note that his 47-percent hard-hit rate in the last 15 days trails only Alex Rodriguez’s (57 percent) and Jung-ho Kang’s (51 percent) among starting third basemen.
Bargain Rating and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Kris Bryant, CHC
Bryant doesn’t offer any savings at DraftKings, but don’t let that scare you off. Despite having a -0.036 wOBA Differential against left-handed pitching, Bryant has a 95-MPH recent exit velocity that ties him for second at the position with Jung-ho Kang. Bryant has also managed to exceed salary-based expectations in 53 percent of his performances over the last month — that, despite having a salary consistently over $4,500.
Kyle Seager, SEA
Per our advanced statistics, Seager has negative (albeit minuscule) differentials versus left-handed pitching. Even so, Yangervis Solarte, Matt Carpenter, and Danny Valencia are the only starting third basemen who have averaged more DraftKings points in the last month. Seager has also produced a +6.31 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
SS
Trea Turner, WSH
If you’re rostering a player who ordinarily doesn’t hit home runs, it helps if he can at least steal bases. Turner’s .074 steals per game keep him in elite company. It also doesn’t hurt that he’ll likely continue batting second for a Nationals team implied to score the second-most runs today.
Wilmer Flores, NYM
Pay no attention to Flores’ batted-ball distance since taking over for David Wright. (Ok, it’s 108 feet, but hear me out.) His .526 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching is quietly top-five in the main slate. And his .253 ISO? It trails only Manny Machado’s at their position. Flores’ peripherals versus southpaws are good enough to warrant rostering him at DraftKings (where he costs $4,100) — but there’s really no point to doing that when you can have him with a 99-percent Bargain Rating (and near-minimum salary) at FanDuel.
OF
Mookie Betts, BOS
Betts still costs $5,200 at DraftKings, but he has a .553 slugging percentage and is in as good of a spot as any tonight. Not only is he leading off for an offense implied to score the most runs, but Marcus Stroman has allowed a 40-percent hard-hit rate in the past 15 days. Betts’ 13.4 DraftKings points over the last month are also the highest at his position.
Mark Trumbo, BAL
We could even discuss Adam Jones or Hyun-Soo Kim, but I tend to lean toward Trumbo’s 93 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel as a tiebreaker. Despite having a -0.068 ISO Differential, Trumbo has been strong over the last month, trailing only Ian Desmond (14.7), Lorenzo Cain (14.5), and Franklin Gutierrez (13.4) in FanDuel points per game (12.8) among outfielders in the main slate.
Nomar Mazara, TEX
With Rougned Odor potentially back, Mazara could bat in a number of places in Texas’ lineup. However, as long as he’s starting, he’s worth considering. Note his .530 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. Nate Karns has pitched well as of late, but he has also allowed .019 more HR/9 to right-handed (as opposed to left-handed) batters this season.
Weather Watch
Thunderstorms could delay Royals-Indians, but a delay isn’t certain, as the thunderstorms are scattered throughout the area. Diamondbacks-Cubs, however, has a much greater chance of being delayed, as “flash flooding” is being mentioned in the area. But hitters in that matchup should still be safe, since reports are showing only a small window for inclement weather. Monitor Giants-Cardinals, as St. Louis has a 56-percent chance of precipitation this evening. Brewers-Phillies remains the most likely to be postponed altogether, since scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the game.
Good luck!
