The Vikings travel to Philadelphia to cap off this Monday Night double-header in a matchup between two NFC teams vying to start 2-0. This game features a lot of big-name weapons on the offensive side of the ball, from Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.
Both teams took care of business in Week 1, as Philadelphia led by 17 comfortably in the 4th quarter against Detroit in a game that’s box score doesn’t represent its closeness. Minnesota handled a short-handed Green Bay team, and a win tonight would jump them into sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
The Eagles are currently favored by just under a field goal, with the total sitting at 48.5 after opening at 47.5. The player props now sit at 8-0 on the year, let’s see if the hot streak can keep going! Buckle up and enjoy a big NFC matchup.
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NFL Player Props: Vikings-Eagles
Jalen Hurts Over 49.5 rushing yards
Hurts galloped all over the Lions’ defense in Week 1, racking up 91 yards on 17 carries. It’s unlikely that we see Hurts carry the ball 17 times again, as most lead running backs don’t reach this number on a weekly basis. However, Hurts shouldn’t need this much volume to eclipse his total.
Hurts averaged 9.27 rush attempts per game in his first full year as a starter, and that was with him battling an ankle injury for a good chunk of the season. Hurts exceeded 50 rushing yards in 8 of 15 games last year, but there is more to the story. He reached the 50-yard marker in only 2 of Philadelphia’s first 6 games before the Eagles’ shifted more towards an overall rushing attack, as opposed to having Hurts beat defenses with his arm.
After switching to a more run-oriented offense, Hurts rushed for 55+ yards in six straight games before Hurts suffered an ankle injury against the Giants in Week 12. He missed their next game against the Jets and only carried the ball 17 times in the Eagles’ three games to finish the season.
Week 1 looked far more like Philadelphia’s middle-of-the-year stretch. Of Hurts’ 17 carries, 7 were scripted runs, showing the Eagles’ interest in getting the ball in his hands on the ground. He scrambled on passing plays 9 times, with his final carry coming on a kneel-down. It’s unlikely that Hurts scrambles 9 times again, but he’ll most likely tuck it and run on a handful of passing plays.
Looking at Minnesota’s defense, they were gashed by Green Bay on the ground for 111 yards on 18 carries. However, the Packers fell behind in the game and had to shift their focus to the passing game to try to catch up. Had the game stayed close, Green Bay’s rushing total would likely have been higher. This matchup is beatable for Hurts on the ground. We project Hurts’ rushing number closer to 58 yards, showing a lot of value on his over.
Jalen Hurts Under 239.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts again? Yes, we’re doubling down on Hurts for Monday night. We’re optimistic about Hurts’ outlook running the ball, but not as much when it comes to passing.
Hurts was able to top this number last week, throwing for 243 yards against the Lions. He was fairly efficient, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. However, Detroit boasts one of the worst defenses in the league, so it wasn’t unprecedented for Hurts to have an efficient day against them.
The matchup with Minnesota is far different. They stymied the reigning MVP last week, as Aaron Rodgers could only throw for 195 yards on 34 attempts. The Packers’ passing game was expected to struggle sans Davante Adams, but not to that extent.
With Mike Zimmer out of town, Minnesota is deploying a defensive scheme that is being seen increasingly across the league. The Vic Fangio-style defenses that sit back with two safeties and force you to run the ball and take what is given to you underneath. The Eagles are very content running the ball, and with Minnesota aiming to take away big plays, that will limit Hurts’ chances of eclipsing his yardage total.
Hurts went under 239.5 passing yards in 11 of 15 games last year, including in 10 of their last 11 games to finish the season. Philly acquired Brown in the offseason, showing their interest in surrounding Hurts with weapons and beefing up their passing game. However, the addition of Brown doesn’t change the fact that they want to run the ball. Minnesota got carved up on the ground by Green Bay last week, and Philly will look to do the same.
Our models project this number closer to 224.5 yards, showing a lot of value in the under.
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