Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Titans vs. Bills Showdown
The Bills at home in primetime against a team that lost to the Giants in Week 1 smells like a blowout. I want to attack this slate with Titans pass-catchers that seem to be going overlooked. Looking back to Week 1, it appears the place to attack this Bills defense is over the middle of the field.
Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee combined for 24 targets last week, resulting in 18 receptions for 167 yards. Kyle Phillips, listed as questionable, already showed an ability to earn targets out of the slot in his rookie debut last week. Assuming he is good to go, I expect him to soak up looks over the middle again this week, especially against the excellent pass rush of the Bills defensive line.
Austin Hooper is someone that I doubt anyone will be looking to roster, but he did run a route on 70% of Titans’ 33 pass attempts last week, and he does have a pedigree in the league.
Finally, Hassan Haskins figures to take over the third-down pass-game role at running back.
Priced at just $1,200, Haskins has drawn rave reviews for his ability to pass block and caught eight balls on eight targets during the preseason.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
Player Correlations
I would use a rule to pair Captain Stefon Diggs with at most 1 pass catcher from the Bills, but with the uncertainty around Gabe Davis and the potential blowout, I don’t think that rule makes sense this week.
I think I will get to some Devin Singletary Captain lineups in large field GPPs, and I want to limit those pairings with Moss. It’s possible they both get there in a massive blowout, but I want to make the pairing less likely to appear in lineups.
I’m still pairing Josh Allen with at least two pass-catchers this week. If Davis sits, Isaiah McKenzie should see an increased role as he did play in some two wide receiver sets in the preseason. I think we could see his route share get above 70-75% in that scenario.
Jake Kumerow seems most likely to enter as the other outside receiver in three-receiver sets, making him a huge value at just $200.
Player Groups
The standard rule of max two kickers and defenses still applies.
At most two of Singletary, Moss, and Cook.
At most one of Bills’ ancillary players: Kumerow, Shakir, Cook
Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs
- Gabe Davis (if active)
- Derrick Henry
- Devin Singletary
- Isaiah McKenzie (large-field GPPs)
- Dawson Knox (large-field GPPs)
- Kyle Phillips (large-field GPPs)
- Bills D (maximum of 5%, large-field GPPs only)
