At FantasyLabs, we eat, breathe, and sleep football. So from September to February, we’re breaking down all facets of the game, looking for in-roads to the DFS and betting spaces. As part of our commitment to delivering outstanding football coverage, we’re monitoring player usage against fantasy impact to see which players are trending up and down.
Scoring was at a premium in Week 1, with 11 of the 16 contests staying under the total. Defenses appeared to have an advantage over offenses, with limited preseason action potentially disrupting the starters’ rhythm, getting the ball downfield. Injuries to several key players compounded those issues; however, usage also limited several players’ fantasy ceiling over the opening weekend.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars) – Week 1 Snap Count 36/71 (50.7%)
We knew that it was only a matter of time before James Robinson worked his way back into the lineup, earning a more equal workshare with Travis Etienne Jr. Still, we were expecting Etienne Jr. to have a little more runway to make a more profound fantasy impact. After Week 1’s disappointing effort, it may be wise to reign in expectations for the young running back.
Etienne Jr. played just a shade over half of the snaps, rushing the ball just four times, with four targets in the passing game. The most concerning trend is seeing how much more frequently Robinson was fed the ball, out-carrying Etienne Jr. by an 11-4 margin and out-gaining him by 19 rushing yards.
Further, Etienne Jr’s 7.5 fantasy points didn’t even get him to his projected floor in Week 1.
Given his limited effectiveness against an inferior opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars running back should be an afterthought moving forward.
Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans) – Week 1 Snap Count 44/65 (67.7%)
Historically, two-time Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry plays more than 67.7% of the snaps; however, an interesting relationship between his usage and outcomes suggests that Sunday’s light workload is nothing to worry about.
In total, Henry played just 44 of the 65 snaps in the Tennessee Titans’ loss to the New York Giants in Week 1. That’s on par with what we saw last year from Henry in Titans’ losses. In the two games Tennessee lost with Henry in the lineup, he didn’t play more than 63.5% of snaps, with a cumulative 60.7% usage. Conversely, in wins, Henry was deployed 75.4% of the time.
Historically, Henry has averaged 17.0 DraftKings points with a +2.69 Plus/Minus when the Titans are favored (per our Trends tool).
There’s something to be said about playing with the lead, and that’s evident in reviewing Henry’s metrics from Week 1. The former Offensive Player of the Year will be a mainstay in the lineup, and his fantasy upside skyrockets when the Titans execute their game plan.
Marquise Brown (WR, Arizona Cardinals) – Week 1 Snap Count 62/65 (95.4%)
Marquise Brown has improved his metrics year-over-year since arriving in the NFL, but we could see him fly even higher with the Arizona Cardinals in 2022. On Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, we got a taste of how the Cardinals plan to deploy Brown, and DFS bettors should take notice.
The Cardinals played Brown an astounding 95.4% of snaps, sitting their wideout on just three offensive plays. Although Brown was effective, hauling four of six targets for 43 yards and a score, we should see him become a more prominent fixture in Arizona’s game plan as he builds chemistry with Kyler Murray.
While his 16.7% target share is nothing to write home about — it did rank second on the team — and he ran 42 pass routes on Sunday. Brown also had a team-high 39.5% air yards share.
He barely reached his median projections, posting 12.3 fantasy points against the Chiefs, marginally above his projected 12.1 total. With a salary in the high $6,000 range, rostering Brown could be the key to conquering the tournament landscape in the near future.
In our early run of projections, Brown is projecting as a slightly negative value, which could keep his tournament ownership down.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, Detroit Lions) – Week 1 Snap Count 63/69 (91.3%)
The Detroit Lions came up short in their comeback bid against the Philadelphia Eagles, but they look good in putting up 386 yards of offense. T.J. Hockenson saw an increased role with the team, foreshadowing what to expect from the tight end through the rest of the season.
Hockenson was on the field for all but six offensive plays, totaling 91.3% of snaps, the third-highest percentage of his career. More importantly, the former Iowa Hawkeye translated that to offensive production, with the third-most receptions, targets, and receiving yards.
The Lions spend a lot of time trailing games, inevitably leading to increased emphasis on the passing game. Week 1’s effort fell well short of a standout fantasy performance, but Hockenson’s usage is promising. The Lions’ tight end should be all over our radars as a low-to-midrange cost, boom-potential fantasy option moving forward.
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