A highly-anticipated revenge game is on the horizon as Russell Wilson travels back to his old stomping grounds to face off against the Seattle Seahawks. Wilson all but forced his way out of Seattle this past off-season and gets to immediately find out if the grass is greener on the other side. First-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks to notch his first win, matched up the seasoned-veteran Pete Carroll.
Denver currently sits as a touchdown favorite in this matchup. There are a lot of storylines swirling in this matchup as we look to cap off Week 1. Of course, we have a couple of player props that we’re ecstatic to ride for this Monday night matchup.
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NFL Player Props: Broncos-Seahawks
Melvin Gordon Over 37.5 rushing yards
There was a lot of off-season buzz about Broncos running back Javonte Williams, and rightfully so. Williams is a talented and powerful runner who had an impressive rookie year and is looking to build off of it. However, many people in the public eye seem to believe Williams is taking a stranglehold on the backfield, moving towards a work split that is well in Williams’ favor. We believe otherwise.
Melvin Gordon actually had the exact same number of carries as Williams last season, despite playing one less game. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett said that he prefers using a “hot-hand” approach as opposed to typical starter/backup roles. Hackett was a part of Green Bay’s offense the past couple of years, where he watched Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, and even Jamaal Williams lead the backfield in certain games. As much as people want Melvin Gordon to go away, he’s not going to.
Denver is a touchdown favorite in this contest, and with Russell Wilson still getting accustomed to a new offense, the Broncos may lean on the run more than they may later in the season. Gordon will most likely see a good chunk of work, just as he did last year. Gordon eclipsed 37.5 rushing yards in 12 of 16 games last year, going a near-perfect 6-for-7 in the Broncos’ victories.
Even if Williams does get out ahead of Gordon in this backfield, Gordon should still see nearly 10 carries, in which he could definitely exceed 37.5 rushing yards against a shaky Seattle defense.
Albert Okwuegbunam Over 28.5 receiving yards
With Noah Fant playing on the other side of this matchup tonight, Albert Okwuegbunam should step into a full-time role with the Broncos this season. With how different Albert O’s situation is this year from last year, looking at last season’s yardage totals may not be too valuable. With a different signal caller, while splitting time with Fant, Okwuegbunam was able to exceed 28.5 yards in only 4-of-12 total games while reaching 21, 24, and 25 yards in a few others.
Albert O doesn’t have Noah Fant to worry about anymore, and he has Russell Wilson throwing him the football. The Broncos’ other tight ends, Eric Saubert and Eric Tomlinson are practically only run-blockers and won’t threaten Okwuegbunam’s passing-game usage. With how injuries have plagued the Broncos’ receiving room, it’s likely Albert O is Wilson’s third option behind Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
In Russell Wilson’s 13 full games he played last year, tight end Gerald Everett, who was Seattle’s starter last season, went over 28.5 receiving yards in seven games. Even Everett was in a timeshare last season, as Will Dissly took a lot of snaps and targets away from him.
We’re finally going to see Okwuegbunam step into a premier role in an exciting offense, and we think that he’s going to hit the ground running.
Geno Smith Under 207.5 passing yards
Geno Smith was crowned the champion of Seattle’s quarterback battle in the offseason. Smith saw some time as Seattle’s starter when Russell Wilson missed time and will look to improve on his 1-2 record as Seattle’s starter.
If there’s one thing that we’ve learned from Pete Carroll’s tenure as the Seahawks head coach, it’s that he loves to pound the rock. With a far less talented quarterback under center from years past, it’s likely that Carroll leans on the ground game.
In Geno’s three starts last season, he totaled 195, 167, and 209 passing yards, barely eclipsing his yardage total in one of three. With Denver still trying to figure out their offense and Seattle notoriously taking the air out of the ball, we could see a lot of rushing attempts from both sides, which will limit Smith’s chances of reaching his yardage total.
The strong point of Denver’s defense is their secondary, and with Denver banged up in the front seven (ILB Josey Jewell is out, Randy Gregory will play but is nursing a shoulder injury), Seattle will likely look to the run game as the engine of their offense. A run-heavy approach will limit Geno’s opportunity to reach his yardage total. Geno will need a hyper-efficient game, which may be difficult due to the skill in Denver’s secondary.
If Seattle falls far behind and they are forced to pass, that may be bad news for this prop total. However, we’re confident in Seattle leaning on the run as long as they aren’t too far behind and trying to limit mistakes to try to win this ballgame.
