NFL Week 1 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys starting at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Buccaneers are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, and the total currently sits at 50.5 points.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game should be a fun one for DFS. There are plenty of stud options to consider, and there are also plenty of uncertainties with both squads. That gives us tons of choices in terms of lineup construction.
Mike Evans is the most expensive option on DraftKings, which feels a bit odd. Evans is coming off a solid year – he finished ninth in PPR points per game – but he wasn’t exactly dominant. He did rack up 14 touchdowns, but his 74 catches and 1,035 receiving yards were nothing to write home about.
However, Evans could be looking at an expanded workload in Week 1. Chris Godwin is currently questionable, and Antonio Brown is gone. Rob Gronkowski is also no longer with the team, so they could be without three of their top four pass-catchers from last season.
Evans played in two games without Godwin last season, and he averaged five catches and 68 yards while scoring three touchdowns. He also saw seven targets in both games, so he didn’t exactly see a massive uptick in volume.
Overall, Evans seems overpriced at the moment, and he easily owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier per THE BLITZ.
CeeDee Lamb is the other expensive pass-catcher in this matchup, and he could be poised for a monster year. Amari Cooper is now in Cleveland, and Michael Gallup will miss at least the first week.
Lamb played just one game without Cooper last season, and it was a bizarrely low-scoring game vs. the Chiefs. The Cowboys managed just nine points on three field goals, and Lamb finished with just three catches for 14 yards.
I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance vs. the Buccaneers. Lamb is one of the most talented receivers in football, and the Buccaneers’ secondary was a major weakness last year. Lamb owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3, which is tied for the second-highest mark in our NFL Models.
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