Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer and be sure to check out Matt LaMarca’s in-depth Showdown breakdown for this game.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Broncos vs. Seahawks Showdown
I always try to imagine what a game would look like if it went different from the consensus view. The 2022 Seahawks make that really hard. If this game does end up with the Broncos cruising like it looks on paper, we need to find ways to capitalize still.
Travis Homer looks poised to handle obvious passing downs and makes a great pairing in lineups that tell a story of an easy Broncos win. In fact, Homer and $400 DeeJay Dallas are both options, as both are likely to see opportunities in the second half of a blowout.
Finally, if we get word on a KJ Hamler pitch count or surprise inactive, then rookie Montrell Washington makes for a great deep sleeper at the minimum price. The rookie has impressed in camp and would likely inherit Hamler’s slot snaps.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 94%
Player Correlations
I don’t think it makes sense to completely exclude a pairing like Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams in one game scenario. While unlikely, it is possible that both guys can score touchdowns and wind up optimal.
Fortunately, the Lineup Optimizer allows you to make this a negative correlation without completely grouping it out. I usually like to use the high-projected player as my anchor for this correlation.
Alpha wide receivers require so much volume to be the optimal Captain that they infrequently appear with more than one pass-catcher from the same team.
Expensive quarterbacks need to be ending drives with touchdowns if they are going to be the optimal Captain, which makes kickers a less desirable pairing.
Player Groups
The standard rule of max two kickers and defenses applies.
I am grouping out this running back scenario as it represents two completely different game scripts.
Penny being the optimal Captain, requires Seattle to play with a lead, while Homer is the pass-catching back that figures to see increased work if they are trailing.
Captain Pool
- Russell Wilson
- Courtland Sutton
- Jerry Jeudy
- Javonte Williams
- Rashaad Penny (low priority)
- Tyler Lockett (low priority)
- DJ Metcalf (low priority)
