The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Franmil Reyes ($2,600): Outfielder, Chicago Cubs
Besides the game played at Coors Field, the Chicago Cubs seem to be the best value team on this 12-game slate. In the heart of the lineup is outfielder Franmil Reyes who has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. He has two home runs during that stretch and five RBI. Since being acquired by the Cubs in early August, Reyes has a career-best .281 batting average. The new home is treating him very well.
Reyes will draw a matchup against Reds right-hander Justin Dunn who doesn’t have much experience under his belt at the major league level. Despite starting for the last four years, this is only Dunn’s 31st career start. In his first season with the Reds, Dunn has allowed career-highs in ERA and barrel percentage as he has a 2.70 HR/9, which is atrocious.
The hot bat of Reyes has another great chance at a long ball in this spot.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Muncy ($2,400): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to roll through the league with the best record, but they really need one of their key bats to turn his game around. That would be Max Muncy, who is an extremely boom-or-bust batter. He is seemingly strikeout or bust this season as he has a 26.1% strikeout rate but a 43.1% hard-hit rate and a 13.5% barrel percentage. When Muncy makes contact, the ball is going a long way, which is very intriguing for a value play.
Muncy is still batting in the heart of this Dodgers lineup as he will get a matchup against one of the poor Giants starting pitchers. Our lineups page currently has Tyler Rogers, but it could also be Wei-Chieh Huang. Both have never started a major league game, which is why there is no run line for this game at the moment. Regardless of who takes the mound, Muncy’s price has dipped too low as he has a 99% Bargain Rating.
Having dual eligibility is also a great bonus.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($11,200 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Twins
Leading the way in not only THE BAT but also for our in-house projections for the top pitcher is Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. The Yankees and even Cole had a tough month of August but are starting to turn things around in early September. Even though Cole is struggling in his terms, the upside when he is on the mound is tremendous. Cole has finished at least six innings in 15-straight starts and has thrown 100 pitches or more pitches in 12 of those 15 starts.
Cole has had above a 30% strikeout rate for the fifth-straight season. Ever since he got traded to the Astros and now the Yankees, Cole has been striking batters out with ease. This matchup against the Twins is a little bit different as they are without some of their key players and are only implied for 2.8 runs.
Make sure to monitor the weather in this game! That is the only real concern.
If it plays, Cole is the best pitcher on the slate tonight.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Winners of seven of their last 10 games, the Los Angeles Angels have been playing some really good baseball recently. It is surely too little too late, but they are favored with an implied total of 4.7 runs tonight. Shohei Ohtani has been one of the best players in the league this season. He leads the team in nearly every hitting and pitching statistic. He has a .268 ISO, .378 wOBA, and a 47.6% hard-hit rate. Ohtani is expensive but more than worth it.
The Detroit Tigers will send out left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, who will start for only the 12th time this season. In his first season with the Tigers, Rodriguez has allowed a 4.17 ERA and has a career-high 10.6% walk rate. A strikeout rate of 19.5% is the lowest since his rookie season, and not putting any fear into opposing batters. Ohtani will not get the platoon advantage, but don’t let that intimidate you from the fantastic spot that he is in.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Milwaukee Brewers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
With about a month left in the season, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves two games back from the NL Wild Card spot as they get set for another favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. They have a ridiculously-high 6.5 implied run total, which is by far the highest on the slate.
This Brewers stack features so many batters who are popping like crazy in our projections.
Christian Yelich will get us started in the leadoff spot as he leads the slate with the highest ceiling at only $4,400 on DraftKings. He has been in and out of the lineup recently, but anytime a date with Coors Field is on the schedule, getting healthy to bolster the stats is always a necessity. Yelich has the platoon advantage and is a must-play for cash games.
Willy Adames leads the Brewers in RBI this season. In his first full season with the team, Adames has a career-high 26 home runs and a 12.9% barrel percentage. He also has above a 40% hard-hit rate for the second-straight year, paired with a .221 ISO. Adames is the most expensive batter in this stack but is the best shortstop option on the slate.
Rowdy Tellez is another incredible option, as he also has a career-high in home runs this season with 28. Twenty-four of his 28 home runs have come against right-handed pitching. Similar to Adames, Tellez has a career-high in barrel percentage and a very high 46% hard-hit rate. A great spot with the platoon advantage for Tellez tonight.
Hunter Renfroe continues the trend of players hitting the ball very well, as he has a hard-hit rate of 44.2% this season. Renfroe has been bounced from team to team in the last three years but seems to play well wherever he lands. He has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games with two home runs and nine RBI during that time.
Rounding out this Brewers stack is Andrew McCutchen, who is another newbie on the team this year. The veteran has had an up-and-down season but has two hits in his last two starts. McCutchen is the cheapest option in this very affordable stack but still has some upside.
The Brewers will draw Chad Kuhl, who has really struggled in his first year with the Rockies. Kuhl has allowed a career-high 5.19 ERA, 1.60 HR/9, and a 43.1% hard-hit rate. Pair that with a career-low 17.4% strikeout rate, and this Brewers stack is looking great in this spot. He has allowed at least a home run, and three earned runs in each of his last eight starts. Kuhl hasn’t won a game since early July, and it’s hard to see him pitching well against this Brewers lineup tonight.
