The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nick Pratto ($2,000): First Baseman, Kansas City Royals
If you haven’t had the pleasure of watching Nick Pratto, it’s something to consider ahead of Thursday’s contest against the Chicago White Sox. More importantly, the Royals first baseman should be high on the priority list for rostering on the early slate at DraftKings.
Through 137 plate appearances to start his MLB career, Pratto is destroying the baseball. The former first-round pick has an impressive 16.7% barrel rate which has yielded six home runs and 16 extra-base hits. Those efforts have earned Pratto more responsibility in the Royals’ offense, with the 23-year-old slotting into the four and five spots on occasion.
That’s where Pratto is projected to hit Thursday when the Royals conclude their series AL Central showdown against Johnny Cueto and the White Sox. Aside from the lefty vs. righty matchup, benefitting Pratto, Cueto has also given up solid contact this season, which should facilitate another strong showing from Pratto. Cueto sits in the bottom half of the league in expected slugging percentage, batting average, and earned run average, allowing batters to excel against his six-pitch mix.
Expect that to be the case in Thursday’s matinee, with Pratto a low-cost option with boom potential.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
AJ Pollock ($2.400): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are fighting fire with fire, possessing a bargain player of their own to help create offense. Outfielder AJ Pollock ranks near the top of our projections in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary and is a worthy inclusion on FanDuel slates.
In his 11th season, Pollock’s production has tapered somewhat, but his advanced metrics imply that he’s a progression candidate over the last month of the season. The 34-year-old is below his expected metrics and has improved his stats over his recent sample.
The former All-Star finished August with a .417 slugging percentage, elevating his season-long mark to .368 but still short of his expected total of .409. Moreover, he has eight hits over his past seven games, suggesting that he’s finding his rhythm in the batter’s box and should deliver quality at-bats against Daniel Mengden and the Royals.
Our modeling suggests that there will be plenty of offense in the Royals vs. White Sox, and Pollock will do his part to elevate the White Sox scoring. We like the White Sox outfielder to reach his fantasy ceiling as bargain play.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Pitching has been the Mariners’ strong suit all season. The M’s staff has the seventh-best earned run average in the majors, allowing the seventh-fewest walks and hits per inning pitched and the tenth-best opponent’s batting average. Logan Gilbert has been a primary contributor and rates as the top pitching option on the early slates.
Gilbert hasn’t won since July 5 but has posted some quality outings over his past few starts. The former first-round pick has allowed just seven earned runs over his last three starts, spanning 17.1 innings pitched. Included are two quality starts and a modest 11 strikeouts, but no wins.
We’re anticipating better luck for Gilbert as he maintains his current form against an underwhelming Tigers squad. The Tigers rank dead last in the MLB in on-base plus slugging percentage, scoring the fewest runs and seventh-most strikeouts.
THE BAT X projections put Gilbert at the top of the list in median and ceiling projections. The 25-year-old comes into Thursday’s matinee in fine form and should end the morning slate with the most fantasy points among pitchers.
Hitter
Sean Murphy ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
For decades, the Athletics have curated some of the best talents in the majors. Although the shine has worn off with this year’s underperforming team, they have several noteworthy players who continue to produce. Among those is Sean Murphy, who is the team’s top offensive star and the top hitting option on Thursday.
The A’s catcher leads the team in nearly every offensive category, including slugging percentage, home runs, and RBIs, with Murphy using the past month to separate himself from the rest of the pack. Over that stretch, Murphy has compiled a .553 slugging percentage, driving in 17 and swatting five dingers.
In reconciling his current analytics with production, we’re anticipating more of the same from Murphy to end the campaign. Murphy ranks in the 84th percentile with his .465 expected slugging percentage, which exceeds his actual rating of .451. Further, his barrel rate, hard-hit percentage, and plate discipline validate sustained production.
Murphy sits in the heart of the Athletics’ lineup and will have ample opportunity to continue his upward trend against the Nationals. THE BAT X algorithm rates Murphy as an elite fantasy option on both platforms, which is also reflected in the FantasyLabs projections.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT X using median projections belongs to the Royals. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Before last night’s 4-2 loss, the Royals were mashing the ball, recording 37 runs over their previous five contests. We like them to recapture that offensive glory in the series finale against the White Sox.
As noted, Pratto is projected to bat fourth and is an undervalued fantasy option. However, the Royals have insulated him with some of their best hitters.
Salvador Perez continues to hit for power, leading the team with a .461 slugging percentage. Perez is tied for the team lead in homers despite only playing 88 games this season.
The person he’s tied with, Bobby Witt Jr., is also included in our stack. The Rookie of the Year candidate has made the most significant offensive contributions on the Royals this season, leading the team in RBIs, runs, and extra-base hits.
MJ Melendez has made their run production easier as an above-average leadoff man. Among players with at least 200 plate appearances, the 23-year-old ranks second on the team in on-base percentage and third in slugging percentage.
Although we would typically include the five-hitter, there’s an implied advantage in inserting left-handed batting Michael Massey instead. Massey has been moderately successful in limited playing time, with seven of his 22 hits going for extra bags, driving in nine while coming around to cash six times. He’s got hits in three of his last four and warrants inclusion tonight against the White Sox.
According to THE BAT X algorithm, this Royals’ stack is the highest-rated projection available on the morning slates and our preferred combination.
