The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nick Gordon ($2,000): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
The Twins will be looking to break out of a five-game skid against the Astros on Thursday, and according to THE BAT X projections, they should get some help from an unsuspecting source. Nick Gordon projects as a top fantasy option but comes at a discounted rate, making him our top bargain option on DraftKings.
Gordon has appeared in 100 games for the Twins, driving in 24 and swatting five long balls. Although he’s made modest contributions throughout the season, he’s clobbered the ball in August. Through 63 plate appearances, the Twins’ outfielder has a .482 slugging percentage, including nine runs batted in and six runs scored.
That increase in production was expected, and further progression is anticipated as Gordon remains below his expected slugging percentage of .492. Moreover, he rates as a top analytics player with a 47.5% hard-hit rate, 11.3% barrel percentage, and 90.9 mph average exit velocity.
Gordon is running hot and can take advantage of the righty vs. lefty matchup against Luis Garcia. The Twins slide may continue, but expect Gordon to make some serious contributions.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Kyle Schwarber ($3,200): Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies
This may not be a true bargain play, but we can’t look past the value that Kyle Schwarber adds to FanDuel fantasy rosters. Schwarber leads our median and ceiling projections but has a paltry $3,200 salary. On that basis, we’re including him as our bargain play.
Schwarber has been one of the best power hitters in the bigs all season, putting together a .489 slugging percentage with 34 home runs and 52 extra-base hits. Further, he’s the team leader in runs and runs batted in, illustrating that the Phillies’ offense runs through him.
That’s without even considering his elite advanced metrics, which put him among the game’s best hitters. The Phillies outfielder ranks no worse than the 96th percentile in most noteworthy metrics, including expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and average exit velocity.
Schwarber has just one hit over his past three outings and is a natural progression candidate against Justin Dunn and the Reds. His fantasy ceiling greatly exceeds his salary, with Schwarber leading THE BAT X Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary by a wide margin.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Jacob deGrom ($10,800 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies
All Jacob deGrom has done since returning to action is impress. The two-time Cy Young winner returned to the Mets’ rotation at the start of August and has torched opponents since then. Those dominant performances should continue against a struggling Colorado Rockies squad.
If it wasn’t evident already, his recent performances prove that deGrom is from another planet. The 34-year-old has allowed just 12 baserunners across 23.1 innings pitched with 37 punchouts. In typical baseball terms, we would qualify that as 0.51 walks and hits per inning pitched and 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Although it’s a small sample, deGrom has an expected earned run average below 1.53 for the second straight year.
What’s truly impressive about deGrom’s metrics is that he’s accomplished this with effectively a fastball-slider combination. Granted, he’ll occasionally incorporate a curveball or changeup, but 91.8% of his pitches this season have been a heater or slider. Batters still can’t figure him out, whiffing 52.9% of the time on the slider and 31.4% on the four-seamer.
The Rockies have dropped seven of their last ten decisions and are coming off an 11-strikeout performance, setting deGrom up for success. The hard-throwing righty is expected to perform and leads THE BAT X projections and FantasyLabs’ in-house model in median and ceiling projections.
Hitter
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Toronto Blue Jays go for a three-game sweep against their division rivals on Thursday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the charge and warrants inclusion on any DFS roster tonight.
Success hasn’t come as naturally for Vladdy Jr. this season. The Jays’ slugger has fallen off last season’s MVP-caliber stats but continues to swing a hot bat. The 23-year-old ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate, 92nd percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 97th percentile in expected batting average.
We’ve seen Vladdy Jr. trend towards career norms over his recent schedule, and we expect that progression to continue against the Red Sox. Guerrero Jr. has a mammoth .535 slugging percentage this month, with 12 of his 24 hits going for extra bags. That has resulted in more run production, leading to 14 runs batted in and 11 runs scored. Somehow, Vladdy Jr. is also adding fantasy value on the basepaths, stealing two bases in August, as well.
Kutter Crawford has been unimpressive this season, posting a 5.14 earned run average and a .435 expected slugging percentage. Those struggles have been exacerbated lately, with Crawford giving up 16 earned runs across his last three starts.
Vladdy and the Jays are rolling, and Crawford won’t even be a speed bump.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT X using median projections belongs to the Blue Jays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
As noted, tonight’s pitching matchup leaves a substantive edge in backing Guerrero Jr, although the remaining Blue Jays roster is included in that advantage.
Usual leadoff man George Springer has only played a handful of games in August, but he’s been highly effective in the batter’s box. Springer has a .781 slugging percentage in 31 plate appearances, with eight runs batted in and seven scored. Even if you’re not stacking the Jays, Springer is worth consideration.
Vladdy Jr. is projected to bat second, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Alejandro Kirk in the power spots. Kirk ranks third on the team in on-base plus slugging percentage, with the fifth-most runs scored and sixth-most home runs. Gurriel Jr. has been one of the most well-rounded hitters in the Jays’ lineup, sitting top six in virtually every offensive category.
Teoscar Hernandez rounds out the five-man stack and has made magic happen all season. Hernandez ranks third on the team in home runs and fourth in RBIs, driving in seven over his last 12 games.
