The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate features 10 games starting at 1:35 p.m. ET to close out the first half of the 2022 baseball season. Keep an eye on confirmed lineups today, as many player might take advantage of the extended breaks, and more certainly keep an eye on the weather in the Midwest, with rain in the forecast in Cleveland and St. Louis.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,500) New York Yankees (-200) vs. Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole jumps to the top of the Player Model on Sunday, squaring off against the archrival Boston Red Sox. Projected for 8.4 strikeouts, Cole faces a Red Sox lineup with a 3.4 implied-run total and a 0.282 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate. A dominant arm in the majors, Cole has an 8-2 record in 18 starts, with a 3.05 ERA, 31% K rate, and 1.01 WHIP, and despite being the most-expensive pitcher on DraftKings, he looks to have an ideal outing against a slumping Red Sox offense.
Per the Trends tool, when favored at home with a -200 Moneyline or greater, Cole averages 27.21 actual DraftKings points and a +7.56 Plus/Minus. Look for Cole to be the lock-and-load SP1.
Aaron Nola ($9,900) Philadelphia Phillies (-154) at Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola looks to have an ideal matchup Sunday against the Miami Marlins, who are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. A spend-down option from Cole, Nola is projected for 6.75 strikeouts against a more disciplined Marlins lineup that has a 0.237 strikeout-per-at-bat average. However, Nola, who has a 5-7 record with a 3.35 ERA, 27.7% K rate, and 0.93 WHIP in 18 starts, should benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue of loanDepot Park, which has one of the highest park factor ratings on the slate. Even with a more difficult matchup, Nola should have a decent outing and will likely benefit from the win-bonus upside.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Shane Bieber ($9,400) Cleveland Guardians (-233) vs. Detroit Tigers
Even priced at $9,400 on DraftKings, Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber projects as a top value on Sunday’s slate. In 17 starts this season, Bieber has a 4-5 record with a 3.24 ERA, 24.9% K rate, and 1.13 WHIP and looks to have returned to dominance as a top arm in the league. Projected for 7.86 strikeouts, Bieber also has massive win-bonus upside, facing a Tigers lineup with a 0.251 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a .298 wOBA, which is among the lowest on the slate. With a plethora of top-tier arms on Sunday’s slate, take an extra look at Bieber.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Dylan Cease ($9,000) Chicago White Sox (N/A) vs. Miami Marlins
Chicago White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease might be an overlooked option Sunday, and he projects for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Making 18 starts this season, the young arm has an 8-4 record with a 2.30 ERA, 34% K rate, and 1.24 WHIP and is projected for 6.28 strikeouts against a Minnesota Twins lineup with a 0.222 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the lowest on the slate. Combined with a .335 wOBA, the Twins might pose problems for Cease. However, compared to the other higher-priced arms, Cease might be the risky move that unlocks the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the New York Mets:
- Pete Alonso (4) ($4,600)
- Jeff McNeil (5) ($3,600)
- Francisco Lindor (3) ($5,200)
- Starling Marte (2) ($5,500)
- Brandon Nimmo (1) ($4,500)
Implied for a slate-high 6.4 runs, the New York Mets offense looks to be a top stack option Sunday. The Mets are scheduled to face Chicago Cubs pitcher Adrian Sampson, who has an 0-1 record in 27 innings pitched (four starts) with a 3.33 ERA, 20% K rate, and 1.11 WHIP. Despite the wind blowing in at Wrigley, the Mets are a top offense in the majors and a lineup loaded with power and discipline, as their .314 wOBA is among the highest on the slate. Sampson could undoubtedly have a tough outing facing a top-tier offense.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings. The Mets’ top-of-the-order comes at an affordable price tag, costing $23,400 for a five-man stack in an ideal position Sunday.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by projected ceiling, belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
In what looks like a spend-up choice from the Mets, the Braves’ 1-2-3-4-5 stack projects for one of the highest ceilings, according to THE BAT. Priced at a sky-high $28,300 on DraftKings, the Braves offense gets a matchup against Washington Nationals pitcher Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez has made one official start this season, posting a 1-1 record with a 4.57 ERA, 17.1% K rate, and 1.43 WHIP mostly out of the bullpen.
Expect the runs to come in bulk from this powerful top of the order, which has a .333 wOBA.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Willson Contreras C ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
Removing the Braves and Mets in search of possible one-off plays, Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras has the highest rating in our model on DraftKings. Contreras should be a popular option Sunday against pitcher David Peterson of the Mets. Projected to bat second, Contreras should kickstart the Cubs offense, which is implied for 5.3 runs. Look for the Cubs catcher to be a great one-off option Sunday despite the high price tag on DraftKings.
Jose Ramirez 3B ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers (Tyler Alexander)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez should be in the conversation Sunday, as he is projected for one of the highest ceilings. Facing pitcher Tyler Alexander, who has a 2-3 record with a 4.45 ERA in four starts, looks to be an ideal spot for Ramirez and the Guardians. Ramirez is slashing .288/.368/.576 with 19 home runs, and he’s an easy choice for a ceiling outcome in a great matchup, despite the potential for weather concerns.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($4,400 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
When looking for value, Seiya Suzuki jumps to the top with the highest projected Plus/Minus. Suzuki, despite the high price tag on DraftKings, is slashing .271/.353/.453 with six home runs. Chicago has an implied total of 5.3 runs, and Suzuki — who is projected to bat cleanup — should have an ideal outing in a matchup with a high implied total.
