The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features five games at 7:15 p.m. ET or later as we head toward the MidSummer Classic. Despite weather issues across the country, Saturday’s main slate should play clean.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Sean Manaea ($7,700) San Diego Padres (-190) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Priced at a discounted $7,700 on DraftKings, San Diego Padres pitcher Sean Manaea looks to be in an ideal spot Saturday, squaring off against the Arizona Diamondback at home in Petco Park. Manaea jumps to the top of the Tournament Model, facing a Diamondbacks team with a slate-low 3.5-implied runs. Projected for 6.17 strikeouts, Manaea could be fantasy relevant quickly, facing a Diamondbacks team with a 0.262 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate.
Don’t let Manaea’s recent struggles dissuade you. Even with a 4-4 record in 16 starts and a 4.09 ERA, he has a 24% K rate and remains one of the elite arms in the majors.
Max Scherzer ($8,400) New York Mets (-220) at Chicago Cubs
New York Mets ace Max Scherzer is a dominant force, and despite missing significant time this season because of an oblique injury, he’s a de-facto SP1.
The conditions are certainly ideal for Scherzer to have a great outing, with the weather blowing in at Wrigley Field. Plus he’s facing a projected Cubs lineup with a 0.282 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is the highest on the slate.
In 10 starts this season, Scherzer has a 6-1 record with a 2.15 ERA, 33% K rate and a 0.83 WHIP — almost matchup-proof numbers. As the most expensive pitcher on the slate, he’ll be worth the spend-up.
Per the Trends Tool, when a -220 favorite or greater on the road, Scherzer averages 27.14 actual DraftKings points and a +4.99 Plus/Minus.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Drew Smyly ($5,800) Chicago Cubs (+185) vs. New York Mets
Veteran pitcher Drew Smyly looks to be one of the top values on the slate Saturday, priced at $5,800 on DraftKings. Like his counterpart Scherzer, Smyly should benefit from the Wrigley Field weather, with winds blowing in and temperatures in the low 70s at first-pitch.
Projected for 3.93 strikeouts, Smyly looks to have a more difficult matchup, facing a disciplined Mets lineup with a 0.236 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the lowest on the slate. However, priced at a deep discount means Smyly, who in 10 starts has a 2-5 record with a 4.43 ERA, 18% K rate and a 1.34 WHIP, will need very little to become fantasy relevant.
A risky move, but Smyly can certainly give access to more expensive pitchers and stacks.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Julio Urias ($10,100) Los Angeles Dodgers (-195) at Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias looks to be a lower-owned option, projected for one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Urias, who in 17 starts has a 7-6 record with a 3.01 ERA, 23% K rate and a 1.05 WHIP, looks to have an ideal matchup against the cross-town rival Los Angeles Angels, who are implied for 3.7 runs, one of the lowest on the slate.
Projected for 6.09 strikeouts, Urias can certainly exceed expectations and produce an 85th-percentile outcome. He’s facing an Angels lineup with a 0.294 strikeout-per-at-bat average, which is one of the highest on the slate.
With a win-bonus upside, Urias is definitely worth the pay-up.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Will Smith (4) ($5,500)
- Freddie Freeman (3) ($6,000)
- Justin Turner (5) ($4,300)
- Trea Turner (2) ($6,100)
- Mookie Betts (1) ($6,400)
Implied for 5.1 runs, the highest on the slate, the powerful top-of-the-order Dodgers lineup is one of the more feared lineups in the majors. They’re facing Angels pitcher Jose Suarez, an ideal matchup vs. a pitcher who has a 4.79 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.
However, the Dodgers are disciplined at the plate, with a slate low 0.208 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.346 wOBA, both the highest on the slate.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings, and at a sky-high price tag of $28,300 on DraftKings, playing the Dodgers might mean pivoting to less-than-ideal arms.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The Padres’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model Saturday and are implied for 4.9-implied run total, one of the highest on the slate.
The five-man 2-3-4-5-6 stack of the Padres is one of the best in the majors. They’re expected to face Tyler Gilbert, who has a 0-3 record in five starts this season with a 5.33 ERA, 15% K rate and 1.26 WHIP. Priced at $23,500 on DraftKings, this stack becomes a value option with plenty of power against a struggling pitcher.
The runs should come in bulk for the Padres on Saturday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Aaron Judge OF ($6,500 DraftKings) New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta)
Removing the Padres and Dodgers in search of possible one-off plays, New York Yankees superstar Aaron Judge jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Judge, who is projected to bat second, is slashing .274/.354/.596, and looks to face Nick Pivetta, who in 18 starts has an 8-6 record with a 4.08 ERA, 23% K rate and a 1.22 WHIP.
The Yankees are implied for 4.9 runs and should rely on Judge and their powerful lineup to kickstart the scoring. At $6,500 on DraftKings, Judge is expensive and offers a one-off upside.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($6,300 DraftKings) Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Julio Urias)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he’s projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit second and looks to face Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias, which should be a tough matchup in a rivalry game. But we’re talking about Ohtani, who is virtually matchup-proof, slashing .255/.347/.486 with 19 home runs.
He’s worth the pay-up.
Jordan Luplow OF ($2,800 DraftKings) Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (Sean Manaea)
Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jordan Luplow projects as the top value on DraftKings, in what looks to be a difficult matchup against Sean Manaea. Look for Luplow to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
Projected to bat second, Luplow should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for the Diamondbacks, even in the pitcher-friendly venue of Petco Park.
