The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for tonight’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Eric Hosmer ($2,000): First Baseman, San Diego Padres
Rockies’ probable starter Chad Kuhl gives up a ton of hard contact, and Coors Field is an unforgiving environment; that should lead to big things from Eric Hosmer as the San Diego Padres look to bounce back after last night’s loss.
Hosmer started the year off with a bang, posting a .607 slugging percentage at the end of April; however, his metrics have slowly deteriorated since then. The former third-overall selection is down to a .382 slugging percentage and hasn’t recorded an extra-base hit since June 26. It’s time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.
The Padres’ first baseman is below career averages across the board, posting suboptimal marks in barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, and expected slugging percentage. Kuhl should facilitate Hosmer’s progression, as he ranks in the 33rd percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity.
The thin mountain air will be doing the Padres favors tonight, and Hosmer projects as a top bargain option. Expect him to blow past his implied value as a $2,000 option at DraftKings.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Nick Castellanos ($2,700): Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies
With the firepower the Phillies have, it’s easy to look past Nick Castellanos. Still, he may be worth taking notice of as the Phillies look to split their two-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Castellanos has been productive at the plate this month, recording 12 hits over his past ten outings, leading to six runs batted in and four runs scored. The knock on him so far is that only one of those hits has gone for extra bases, but Castellanos should deliver a few hard-hit balls against Jays’ starter Ross Stripling.
Stripling isn’t missing many bats these days, giving up a 9.2% barrel percentage and .465 expected slugging percentage. Sadly, those are his best marks over the past three seasons, indicating that Stripling is due for regression. That’s validated by reconciling his expected earned run average with his actual, as the Jays’ pitcher appears to be overachieving relative to his advanced metrics.
According to THE BAT X modeling, Castellanos is one of the top bargain options on FanDuel’s main slate. The Phillies’ outfielder has an elite fantasy ceiling while carrying a modest $2,700 salary, putting him near the top of our Points/Salary rankings.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shane McClanahan ($10,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Tampa Bay Rays turn to their ace Shane McClanahan as they look to take three straight against the Boston Red Sox. McClanahan has allowed five earned runs across his past six starts and is the preeminent pitching option on tonight’s docket.
The University of South Florida product leads the American League with a 1.73 earned run average, ranking first in walks and hits per inning pitched and second with 141 strikeouts. The Rays’ ace has struck out 36 across his past four outings, sitting down no fewer than eight batters per game across that stretch.
Moreover, McClanahan has the advanced metrics to support ongoing success. The former first-round pick ranks in the top 4% of pitchers in whiff rate while sitting top 2% in strikeout percentage. McClanahan has a solid four-pitch mix, but his curveball and slider have been seemingly unhittable, inducing a combined 45.0% whiff rate.
The Red Sox have been a free-swinging team over their recent sample, ranking third in the majors in strikeouts over the past week, averaging 10.0 punchouts per game. That could signify what to expect for McClanahan, who leads THE BAT X and FantasyLabs ceiling and median projections on both platforms tonight.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Mike Minor and the Cincinnati Reds will suffer the wrath of Aaron Judge on Wednesday night. The Yankees coughed up a three-run lead in the bottom of the ninth on Tuesday and will be looking to avenge their first ninth-inning collapse of the season.
Of course, Judge needs no extra motivation as he continues to run roughshod over the MLB. The Yankees’ right fielder leads the majors with 30 long fly balls and 67 runs scored while tied for fourth in runs batted in. Further, Judge’s dominance is plainly illustrated across his advanced metrics.
Judge absolutely dominates from a Statcast perspective. The two-time Silver Slugger ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel percentage.
Judge comes into tonight’s interleague battle in fine form, recording six hits over his last five games, with two doubles and a home run. Minor and his 12.3% barrel rate will do little to slow the Yankees’ slugger down, making Judge the top hitter available.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections belongs to the Padres. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Hosmer isn’t the only Padre with tantalizing upside on tonight’s slate. The Friars feature as our top stacking option against the Rockies, and we’re highlighting the highest-rated combination.
Jake Cronenworth has been a top-producing batter this season and projects as the leadoff man against Colorado. Cronenworth leads the team with 54 runs scored, ranking second in runs batted in and third in extra-base hits.
That sets the table for Manny Machado and Nomar Mazara, two of the best Padres hitters over the past seven days. Mazara ranks second on the team with three runs driven in and fourth in on-base plus slugging percentage with a .867 mark. That’s right above Machado, who is fifth in OPS, but first in home runs and runs batted in over the last week and throughout the season.
Luke Voit and Jorge Alfaro complete our top-rated stack, batting fourth and sixth, respectively. Voit sits second on the team in home runs, complementing his power swing with 15 doubles and 36 RBIs. Similarly, Alfaro is finding his rhythm at the plate, elevating his slugging percentage to .430 after bottoming out at .333 earlier this year.
Betting market confidence is high on the Padres, entering tonight’s contest as -170 favorites with a total set at 10.5. That aligns with our algorithm, which ranks San Diego with the highest projected fantasy point total on Wednesday’s slate.
