The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jack Suwinski ($2,100): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
There are a few Pirates batters who rank highly for value in not only THE BAT but our in-house projections as well. However, Jack Suwinski leads them all as he is projected to bat No. 3 tonight as the Pirates are implied for 5.1 runs and have a 105 Team Value Rating. Suwinski’s rookie season has been a success as he has a .340 wOBA, .257 ISO, and a 35.3% hard-hit rate. He had three home runs just two games ago!
Suwinski will also get the platoon advantage against Cubs right-hander Matt Swarmer, who is also a rookie. Swarmer has had back-to-back starts where he has allowed a combined 10 earned runs and a whopping seven home runs. He has allowed 10 home runs in four starts, so he has a 4.35 HR/9. Suwinksi could easily add another bomb to his chart as Swamer is allowing a 44.3% hard-hit rate.
There is fantastic value with Suwinski tonight.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Kepler ($2,500): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
Another left-handed batter who provides value on FanDuel tonight is Twins outfielder Max Kepler. He has a 93% Bargain Rating, but the upside seems to be limited this season as Kepler has a career-low .152 ISO. Kepler has only six home runs this season and hasn’t hit once in nearly a month. However, he does have a career-low 14.3% strikeout rate and a 42.5% hard-hit rate. A little luck, and Kepler can be back to his home run power.
The struggling Twins return home after a six-game road trip and face Guardians right-hander Aaron Civale. Kepler will get the platoon advantage against Civale, who is coming off the 15-Day IL and hasn’t pitched in over a month. When Civale was pitching, it certainly wasn’t pretty. In his fourth season with the Guardians, Civale is allowing a career-high 7.84 ERA, 1.74 HR/9, and a 1.52 WHIP.
It’s a great matchup for Kepler and the Twins.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sean Manaea ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Despite being the sixth-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and fourth-most on FanDuel, Sean Manaea has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on the slate. He is coming off a rough outing against the Cubs on the road, where he gave up five earned runs and two home runs in only four innings of work. After back-to-back games only allowing one earned run, that outing was a little surprising. Manaea will look to get back on track tonight at home against the Diamondbacks, who have a 3.4 implied run total, which is the lowest on the slate.
Manaea leads the slate with a 6.6 strikeout prediction as the Diamondbacks have the third-highest strikeout/at-bat on the slate. He also has a 25.5% strikeout rate, which is the third in four seasons that Manaea has a rate above 25%. Manaea is also allowing an opponent batting average of .216, which is the second-best of his career. His first season with the Padres has been solid as he will have a great chance for a victory with the Padres being 15-games above .500, while the Diamondbacks are five games below.
Hitter
Mike Trout ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
After going through his worst hitting slump in his entire career, Mike Trout is finding his groove recently. He has hit a home run in three of his last four games and has five in his last six games. The power is back, and the upside is extremely high. Trout leads the Angels in home runs, batting average, ISO, RBI, and nearly everything besides hits. Getting Trout at these prices across the industry also feels like a steal with his upside.
Trout will get a matchup against Royals right-hander Jon Heasley. In seven games since being called up from Triple-A, Heasley has a 1-3 record with a 3.72 ERA. He has one fantastic start against the Orioles, but other than that, Heasley has averaged 7.2 DraftKings points per game in his other six starts. Heasley has a 16.4% strikeout rate and a 44.1% hard-hit rate.
Trout’s career-high .362 ISO is going to match up perfectly.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Despite having a variety of teams worthy of THE BAT’s top stack, it is the Atlanta Braves again who narrowly beat out the Toronto Blue Jays. It is difficult to go against a team who has won 16 of their last 18 games and eight-straight home games. They have averaged 6.2 runs per game during that 18-game stretch.
The Braves continue to rank second in the league in home runs, ISO, and slugging percentage. They lead the league in BABIP as they are a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is hitless in his last two games and hasn’t recorded double-digit DraftKings points since June 11th. It has been a bit of a struggle for the powerful slugger, but the upside remains incredibly high. Acuna Jr. leads the Braves with 12 stolen bases, which makes up for his career-low .172 ISO.
Dansby Swanson is the most expensive shortstop option, but he has been the most consistent Braves batter. He has a career-best .362 wOBA and leads the Braves in batting average, hits, and on-base percentage. Swanson has at least one hit in 29 of his last 32 games and is one steal away from Acuna Jr.
Austin Riley moving up to the No. 3 position has been a great move. He leads the Braves with 18 home runs and 41 RBI. In his fourth season with the Braves, Riley has a career-high .263 ISO, and his two stolen bases are his only in his career. The strikeout rate is up, but so is the hard-hit rate at 43.8%.
Batting clean-up in this stack is Matt Olson, who is the only batter in this stack that has the platoon advantage tonight. His first season with the Braves has been a little disappointing as Olson has the lowest ISO since his rookie season. The price tag is right, and he did have three doubles two games ago.
Marcell Ozuna is the cheapest batter in this stack and ranks second on the team in home runs with 12. There are many ways to go in this stack, but Ozuna does have the power upside that makes him worthy of the last man in for this five-man stack. He can get hot in a hurry, and it only takes one swing.
Returning from the 60-Day IL is Giants right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. He last pitched on April 21st as DeSclafani has been sidelined with an ankle injury for exactly two months. With only three games under his belt and reaching a season-high 83 pitches in his last outing, it is unlikely DeSclafani will be asked to go too deep in this ball game. Instead, this Braves stack may get a lot of the Giants bullpen, which has the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league. Allowing this powerful stack to make contact is going to be a major problem for the Giants’ pitching staff.
