The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nomar Mazara ($2,000): Outfielder, San Diego Padres
Finding a player priced at the bare minimum is going to go a long ways on this slate filled with expensive stacks and pitchers. That is exactly what Nomar Mazara brings as he is projected to bat No. 6 for the Padres, who are implied for 5.1 runs tonight. Mazara has a 95% Bargain Rating as he is batting .333 through nine games with the Padres. The last two seasons with the Tigers and White Sox has been a struggle for Mazara, but he is looking to rebound in his first season with the Padres. So far, so good for the rather young outfielder.
Mazara will get a matchup against right-hander Kyle Hendricks, so he will have the platoon advantage. Through his 11 starts this season, Hendricks allowed a career-high 1.69 HR/9 and a 5.22 ERA. He has also allowed 14 earned runs and five home runs in his last three starts through 14 innings pitched.
Nine of Hendricks’ 11 home runs allowed have come to left-handed batters as he is allowed a .405 wOBA and .581 slugging percentage this season.
This is a great spot to target Mazara, who has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Muncy ($2,700): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Getting exposure to the Los Angeles Dodgers, especially on FanDuel, feels like a necessity tonight as they are implied to score 5.1 runs despite a matchup against Noah Syndergaard. The Dodgers have an 83 Team Value Rating, and Max Muncy has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. This will be his fifth game back since returning from an elbow injury. In his first game back, Muncy hit a home run and double while scoring over 40 FanDuel points.
He has been on base in each game since his return to the lineup, even though he pinch-hit last game.
Muncy will get the platoon advantage against Syndergaard. Even though he is walking at a career-high 19.6% rate, Muncy has had a down year in terms of power and getting on base. Maybe the time off with his injury is just what he needed to turn things around. In his first season with the Angels, Syndergaard is pitching well with a 3.69 ERA.
However, he has lost a lot of velocity as he only had two starts in 2021 and zero in 2020. His strikeout rate has plummeted to 15.4% this season.
This isn’t an intimidating matchup, and Muncy should take advantage.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Gerrit Cole and Max Fried are the only two pitchers priced above $10,000 on both DraftKings tonight. However, Cole stands out as by far the best option for both sites with the highest ceiling. Cole is coming off his worst outing of the year, where he gave up seven earned runs, and five home runs to the Minnesota Twins in only 2.1 innings pitched. In his previous eight starts, Cole averaged 28.3 DraftKings points and 8.6 strikeouts per game.
For the fifth-straight season, Cole has above a 30% strikeout rate as he takes the mound against the Rays.
Cole pitched against the Rays three starts ago and allowed one earned run in six innings while striking out 10 batters. The Rays have the second-lowest wOBA on the slate and the lowest implied total of 3.3 runs. Even though the Yankees aren’t the biggest favorite on the board, they are still a -217 favorite, which is the fourth-largest on the slate.
This should come to no surprise, but Cole has the highest ownership of any pitcher tonight. Do not be intimidated by his last start; Cole has been extremely consistent all season long.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) at Colorado Rockies
It is tough to find a one-off as good as Jose Ramirez. He continues to lead the Guardians in basically every statistic there is. Ramirez ranks second in the league with a .349 ISO and a .641 slugging percentage. Both are career-highs as Ramirez is having his best season ever despite the Guardians being only two games above .500 going into tonight. To no surprise, Ramirez is projected for over 20% ownership despite this being a massive 15-game slate.
He is impossible to ignore with how well he is playing and getting to play at Coors Field.
The Guardians are projected for a slate-high 6.3 implied total as they take on Antonio Senzatela at Coors Field. The fact that they have that high of total and don’t even come close to the top stack makes Ramirez feel like he’s on an island for this Guardians team.
Senzatela has only allowed three home runs in nine starts, and 41 innings pitched. Despite doing a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, he only has a 10.6% strikeout rate and a very high 1.85 WHIP.
He has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last seven starts.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The two teams that went back and forth for the top projected stack in THE BAT are the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves have the top stack at this moment, though.
It is hard to go against the Braves right now with how well they are rolling. They have won 12-straight games and have averaged 6.9 runs per game during that stretch.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has the second-highest ceiling among batters on the slate. During this winning streak, he has been very boom or bust with his production. Acuna Jr. has been on base for 13-straight games, but we take him for his home run power which has been lacking this year with a career-low .210 ISO.
Dansby Swanson continues to lead the Braves in average this season and has at least two hits in three of his last four games. During that mini stretch, Swanson also has two home runs and nine RBI. He also now leads the team in hits, RBI, and on-base percentage. Swanson has been very consistent.
Austin Riley has slowed down a little bit but is still leading the team in home runs with 16. In his fourth season with the Braves, Riley has a ridiculous career-high .260 ISO and .401 xwOBA. The strikeouts are up, but so is the hard-hit rate at 43.1%. Riley has had the most upside for the braves thus far.
Matt Olson is the only batter in this stack that has the platoon advantage tonight. Similar to Acuna Jr., Olson has been extremely boom or bust. He is second on the Braves behind Riley in total bases, but the upside seems to be lacking a bit. Luckily his salary remains cheap and makes for a great first baseman option.
Marcell Ozuna is the cheapest batter in this stack and ranks second on the team in home runs with 11. His average is still very low at .227, but he does have power. If a couple of these players don’t pique your interest, take a look at Orlando Arcia ($2,000) at minimum salary on DraftKings, projected to bat No. 9 tonight.
The Nationals will have right-hander Josiah Gray attempt to slow down this incredibly hot Braves team. Gray has shown very high strikeout upside as he has a career-high 25.9% strikeout rate. However, he has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park with a 2.02 HR/9. Gray has allowed 11 home runs in his last seven starts and has allowed at least one home run in nine of his 12 starts.
The Braves rank second in the league with 89 home runs this season.
Bombs away!
