The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s main slate features five games starting at 7:15 p.m. ET to kick-start a weekend of baseball action. Despite the smaller slate, there are plenty of spots to take advantage of.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($10,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (NA) at San Francisco Giants
Future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw jumps to the top of the list as one of the highest-rated pitchers in our Tournament Model. Kershaw, who is scheduled to return to the mound Saturday after spending time on the injured list because of a hip injury, has started five games this season, posting a 1.80 ERA, 29% K rate and a 0.73 WHIP.
Despite being the highest-priced pitcher on the slate, Kershaw is projected for 6.27 strikeouts, and even with a tough matchup against a projected Giants lineup with a low 0.232 strikeout-per-at-bat average and 0.337 wOBA, should be able to reach fantasy relevance.
Kershaw should also benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue of Oracle Park, which is one of the highest-rated Park ratings on the slate.
On a small slate, the Dodgers’ ace is a de-facto SP1 on DraftKings.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,400) New York Mets (-132) at Los Angeles Angels
New York Mets pitcher Carlos Carrasco looks to have an ideal matchup, facing a struggling Los Angeles Angels lineup with a 4.1-implied run total. In 11 starts this season, Carrasco has an impressive 7-1 record with a 3.52 ERA, 23% K rate and a 1.16 WHIP.
Projected for 6.16 strikeouts — the second-highest on the slate after Kershaw — Carrasco faces a slumping Angels lineup with a slate-high 0.284 strikeout-per-at-bat average. Despite the 4+ run implied total, Carrasco certainly has win-bonus upside.
Per the Trends tool, when a road favorite of -132 or higher, Carrasco averages 24.37 actual DraftKings points with a +4.52 Plus/Minus. Look for Carrasco to be a popular option Saturday, especially with a discount from Kershaw.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Kyle Freeland ($5,500) Colorado Rockies (+195) at San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland projects as one of the top values on the slate, in what looks to be a tough matchup against the San Diego Padres. The Padres have a 4.7-implied run total, which is one of the highest on the slate and have a 0.242 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
Throwing 21 innings in three starts on the road this season, Freeland has a 3.00 ERA, 21% K rate and a 1.38 WHIP. He also should benefit from the pitcher-friendly venue of Petco Park, which rates among the highest Park Factor Rating on the slate.
Priced at $5,500 on DraftKings and projected for 4.38 strikeouts, Freeland looks to be a salary-relief option, allowing higher-priced bats to fit into your lineup.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
George Kirby ($7,100) Seattle Mariners (-123) vs. Boston Red Sox
While certainly not a safe option by any means, Seattle Mariners rookie pitcher George Kirby projects from one of the highest ceilings on the slate Saturday, squaring off against the Boston Red Sox.
Making six starts this season, Kirby has a 1-1 record, with a 3.36 ERA, 23.7% K rate and a 1.09 WHIP.
Boston will likely give the young pitcher issues and are implied for 4.2 runs. However, Kirby benefits from the highest Weather Rating, with temperatures at T-Mobile Park forecasted for the low-60s, which should likely keep the ball in the park.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by median projection, belongs to the New York Yankees.
- Anthony Rizzo (3) ($5,600)
- DJ LeMahieu (1) ($4,800)
- Josh Donaldson (5) ($4,500)
- Giancarlo Stanton (4) ($5,500)
- Aaron Judge (2) ($6,300)
Implied for 5.7 runs, the powerful top-of-the-order Yankees lineup, looks to be in a prime position at home. They are facing a rookie pitcher in Matt Swarmer for the Chicago Cubs, who in two starts has a 1-0 record, throwing 12 innings with a 1.50 ERA, 23% K rate and a 0.83 WHIP.
With what looks impressive through two starts, Swarmer should have problems with a Yankees lineup that does not miss bat, posting an average 0.242 strikeout-per-at-bat average.
As previously mentioned, I prefer a hyper-correlated 1-2-3-4-5 stack when loading up bats on DraftKings and despite the high $26,700 price tag, there is plenty of power and discipline, with the lineup posting a 0.332 wOBA, which is the third-highest on the slate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT — when generated by projected ceiling — belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ bats are sprinkled among the top-rated options in the Tournament Model Sunday and are implied for a 4.9-implied run total, one of the highest on the slate. Despite the pitcher-friendly venue of Oracle Park, the powerful Dodgers lineup faces Sam Long, a second-year starter, who in three starts this season has an 0-1 record with a 2.35 ERA, 16% K rate and a 1.04 WHIP.
Runs will likely come easy for Los Angeles Saturday, with a projected lineup having 0.229 strikeout-per-at-bat average and a 0.341 wOBA.
Load up on the Dodgers, even with a high $25,600 price tag.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Brandon Nimmo OF ($3,800 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels (Michael Lorenzen)
Removing the Yankees and Dodgers in search of possible one-off plays, New York Mets’ outfielder Brandon Nimmo jumps to the top as one of the highest-rated bats in the Tournament Model.
Nimmo, who is projected to bat leadoff, is slashing .268/.373/.421 and looks to have an ideal matchup facing Michael Lorenzen and the struggling Los Angeles Angels. The Mets are implied for 4.9-runs and should rely on Nimmo to kick start the Mets’ scoring. At $3,800 on DraftKings, Nimmo is affordable and offers a one-off upside.
Shohei Ohtani 1B/OF ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Mets (Carlos Carrasco)
If we’re talking about ceiling outcomes, Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani should be in the conversation on Saturday, as he is projected for the highest ceiling.
The superstar is projected to hit second but looks to have a difficult matchup against Oakland Athletics pitcher Carlos Carrasco, who has one of the highest projected strikeouts on the slate. But we’re talking about Ohtani — who should remain matchup-proof by slashing .247/.324/.454 with 12 home runs on the season.
Luke Voit 1B ($2,900 DraftKings) San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland)
San Diego Padres’ first baseman Luke Voit projects as the top value on DraftKings, in what looks to be an ideal matchup against Kyle Freeland. Look for Voit to be a one-off play, which should open up salary relief if playing higher-priced stacks.
Projected to bat cleanup, Voit should have plenty of opportunities to generate runs for San Diego
