The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Luke Voit ($2,700): First Baseman, San Diego Padres
Voit has been on fire for the Padres, who have the third-best record in the American League. He has recorded a hit in 16 of his last 18 games and two hits in five of his previous eight games. Voit has above a 40% hard-hit rate for the sixth-straight season. Having a power bat like Voit in the clean-up spot in the order provides plenty of upside. Voit has also recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games.
Taijuan Walker will take the mound for the Mets, looking to improve on his 3-1 record. What really stands out after looking at Walker’s stats is his extremely low strikeout rate. He is averaging a career-low 12.5% strikeout rate and has three strikeouts in his last 10.2 innings pitched. Walker also has a 1.28 WHIP, so this is a matchup that Voit can exploit.
Voit also has the most Pro Trends of any Padres batter tonight.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have the second-highest implied run total at 5.3 tonight in this matchup against right-hander Brad Keller. They are rolling right now as they have won 10 of their last 12 games while averaging 7.1 runs per game during that time. Hernandez is starting to heat up as well after a slow start to the season. He has recorded at least one hit in all but one game and has a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last nine games.
Keller comes into this game with only one win in 10 starts this season with a 4.15 ERA. He also has a career-low 13.1% strikeout rate and a 39.8% hard-hit rate. Over his last five games, Keller is allowing 4.4 earned runs per game along with five home runs and 39 total hits, and only 14 strikeouts. What a perfect spot to target Hernandez, who is swinging a very hot bat.
This entire Blue Jays lineup is in a great spot tonight.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Justin Verlander ($10,600 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
Verlander has a steep price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel but has the highest ceiling in this matchup against the Mariners. The Astros are the biggest favorite on the slate at -252 as the Mariners are only implied to score 3.2 runs. After really struggling against the Mariners last start, where he allowed six earned runs and four home runs, Verlander will look to get redemption in this home matchup.
In terms of strikeout prediction and ownership, Verlander comes in second for both categories on this slate. The 39-year-old has a career-best 2.23 ERA after only throwing one start in the last two seasons due to injury. Verlander still has upside as he has a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 0.80 WHIP. He is tough to avoid on this slate when looking at the other pitching options.
Expect a bounce-back from Verlander tonight.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($5,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Los Angeles Angels are having major trouble finding the winner’s circle. They have lost 12-straight games, but the upside is still there for Ohtani, who at least has a hit or a walk in eight-straight games. After an incredible 2021 season, Ohtani’s production has dipped a little bit this year. However, he still has a .334 wOBA, .204 ISO, and a 44.1% hard-hit rate.
The Angels and Ohtani are bouncing back soon. Why not tonight?
Ohtani will get a matchup against right-hander Garrett Whitlock who has taken a step back after a very successful 2021 season. Whitlock has eight starts and 12 appearances for the Red Sox with a 3.02 ERA. He has a 24.3% strikeout rate and a 1.10 WHIP. Whitlock has also been really solid against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .246 wOBA. Still putting my trust in Ohtani to get back on track in this matchup.
Prioritize Ohtani on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Atlanta Braves have a 5.7 implied total tonight, which to no surprise, is the best on the slate. They have won five-straight games as they open this series against the Oakland Athletics.
As a team, the Braves rank fourth in home runs and third in ISO. They are a -250 favorite in this matchup against left-hander Cole Irvin who they should be able to dominate tonight.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is coming off of a four-hit game where he finally broke his home run drought. He is still batting .313 despite only three home runs this season. Acuna Jr. has double-digit DraftKings points in four of his last five games and always has the upside to break the slate with his team-leading 10 steals.
Dansby Swanson leads the Braves in average this season but has a career-high 28.2% strikeout rate. He trails Acuna Jr. by only one steal for the team lead, so he can also rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways. Swanson has a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games.
Austin Riley is the hottest Braves batting, leading the team in home runs, hits, and RBI. He has a hit in 13 of his last 14 games and at least two hits in eight of those 13 games. The salary is rising, but he is now projected to bat No. 3, which boosts his production in such a great lineup spot.
Matt Olson is the only Braves batter in this stack that does not have the platoon advantage against Irvin. Similar to Acuna Jr., Olson also had a home run in his most recent game as he leads the Braves in on-base percentage. He is probably the most boom or bust player in this stack.
Despite a .232 average, Marcell Ozuna has at least one hit in seven-straight games. Ozuna is second on the team with 10 home runs, proving the power is still there. As always, with a Braves stack, Adam Duvall ($3,000) remains cheaper and makes sense as the No. 8 hitter with power upside.
Left-hander Irvin has done a great job of keeping the ball in the yard as he has a 0.99 HR/9 this season, which is a career-best for him. That will be put to the test against this very powerful Braves lineup. Where Irvin will struggle the most is with his 14.8% strikeout rate. This Braves stack will have so many opportunities with balls in play, especially if Swanson and Acuna Jr. get on base with their ability to swipe bags. Great spot for the Braves tonight.
