The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Christopher Morel ($3,300): Second Baseman/Outfielder, Chicago Cubs
Since being called up from Double-A, Morel has been fantastic in his 11 games played. He is averaging over double-digit DraftKings points per game with a .391 wOBA and .195 ISO. Morel has recorded at least one hit in 10 of those 11 games while scoring a run in eight. He has one of the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and is an excellent bring-back for one of the best stacks tonight.
Morel will go up against left-hander Aaron Ashby, who owns a 13.5% walk rate. Ashby is a very wild and hard-throwing southpaw that will struggle if he can’t find the zone. He has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard, and his hard-hit rate is low, but Morel is projected to bat leadoff for the Cubs and has dual eligibility on DraftKings. Overall, he’s one of the better value plays on the slate.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Luis Guillorme ($2,000): Second Baseman/Third Baseman/Short Stop, New York Mets
It is rare to find someone as good of a value as Guillorme. He has triple eligibility and is projected to bat leadoff for the Mets, who have a 5.0 implied run total. Over his last two games, Guillorme has five hits in eight plate appearances, including one double and one walk. He is priced at the bare minimum, which will allow lineups to get a more expensive pitcher and stack, and he can fit a ton of builds with his triple eligibility.
Guillorme will get a matchup against Erick Fedde, who has been solid this season. In his sixth season in the league, Fedde has a career-best ERA, WHIP, and HR/9. He is coming off a great game against the Dodgers, where he only gave up four hits in six innings with six strikeouts. Despite pitching so well this season, Fedde still has a minimal projection, and Guillorme is easy to fit in many different situations.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Walker Buehler ($9,200 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Buehler is the best pitcher on this slate when looking at THE BAT X and our in-house median projections. Despite not being the highest-priced, Buehler has the highest projected Plus/Minus in an excellent matchup against the Pirates, who have a slate-low 2.9 implied total. He hasn’t been all that great recently but still has incredible upside. The strikeouts are down as he has a 19.1% strikeout rate but has only allowed a 0.51 HR/9.
The Dodgers are a ridiculous -352 favorite, which is another great sign for Buehler. The Pirates have scored the second-least amount of runs this season as they rank fourth-worst in wOBA and own the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league. They have easily the lowest wOBA on the slate, and Buehler is expected to be the highest-owned pitcher by a sizable margin. That said, he is nearly impossible to get away from, especially on DraftKings with an 85% Bargain Rating.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Dodgers are in a great spot tonight, just as they are virtually every time they take the field. Pairing Buehler with someone like Betts is a very intriguing approach to tonight’s slate. He is the highest-priced batter on the slate, but he has been on an absolute tear recently. Over the last 17 games, Betts is batting .382 with nine home runs and eight doubles. He has a positive Plus/Minus in 13 of those 17 games.
The Pirates will run out Zach Thompson, who is in his second year in the big leagues. Thompson is the lowest-rated pitcher in our model as he has struggled in seven of his nine starts. After posting great strikeout numbers in the minor leagues, he has posted just a 17.2% strikeout rate this season with a 1.31 HR/9. Thompson has a 5.50 ERA, which will be a real problem against one of the best hitters in the game.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Milwaukee Brewers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
It has been a while since the Milwaukee Brewers have popped up as a top stack, but they have a fantastic team value rating of 97, which is the highest on the slate.
This will also be the second game of their doubleheader, so make sure to check the lineups page for their correct lineup. It’s possible that they will make some changes for the nightcap.
They have a 5.7 implied run total and have won four of their last six road games. They also have the third-most home runs with 64 on the season, making them an incredible value at such cheap price tags.
Andrew McCutchen is expected to lead things off, and he has been held hitless in 14 plate appearances over his last three games. Hopefully, a change of scenery to Wrigley Field will help McCutchen get back on track. He has a double-digit projection and is sitting out Game 1 of the doubleheader, so he should be good to go.
Luis Urias is a little expensive for what feels like a lack of upside, but he does have a .148 ISO and four home runs this season. He also boasts a career-high .341 wOBA and a career-low 17.6% strikeout rate. He is in a prime batting order spot in front of a big hitter, so he may be worth the price tag.
That big hitter is Christian Yelich, who is off to a slower start than usual. He has a career-low .318 wOBA, but his hard-hit rate and ISO are trending in the right direction after a down season in 2021. Yelich has the highest ceiling projection according to THE BAT on the entire slate, so make sure to lock him in.
Tyrone Taylor leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus batting in the clean-up spot. Taylor is probably the hottest hitter on the team, racking up 13 hits in his last 10 games, including three home runs and 12 RBI. If choosing to get away from this Brewers stack, consider Taylor as a one-off.
Moving down to the sixth spot with Keston Hiura is the preferred option in this stack. Hiura has been in and out of the Brewers lineup but has a home run in back-to-back games and is still sitting at a reasonable salary. He is normally much better against right-handed pitchers, but this is still a good spot.
Drew Smyly will take the mound for the Cubs in Game 2 of this doubleheader. The soft-throwing southpaw has had plenty of trouble generating strikeouts as he has a career-low 18.2% strikeout rate for the year. Smyly has also allowed eight home runs in his last six games, which makes this powerful Brewers lineup that much more enticing. Look for a big day from the Brew Crew in this fantastic matchup.
