The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7:15 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Joe Musgrove ($9,900), San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-245)
Saturday’s slate is a bit light on stud pitching options. Only four pitchers are priced above $8,000 on DraftKings, and none of them are priced above $9,900.
Of the group, Musgrove stands out as easily the top choice. He’s been fantastic to start the year, pitching to a 1.90 ERA through his first eight starts while striking out nearly a batter per inning. Overall, he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of eight outings, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.86 on DraftKings.
Musgrove also benefits from one of the best possible matchups against the Pirates. They rank just 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and they boast the fourth-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Musgrove’s Vegas data in this matchup is absolutely elite. In addition to being a -245 favorite, the Pirates are implied for a measly 2.8 runs. That’s the top mark on the slate by a wide margin, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.75 (per the Trends tool). Musgrove also leads the slate with a K Prediction of 6.46, so it’s hard to find any flaws with him.
The only real concern with Musgrove is his likely ownership. He’s projected for upwards of 65% ownership via THE BAT X, and any pitcher with that much ownership is worth some fade consideration.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Johnny Cueto ($7,200), Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs (-148)
Cueto has made two starts for the White Sox this season, and he’s yet to allow an earned run. He’s also racked up 12 strikeouts in his 12 innings pitched, giving him an excellent 2.14 FIP.
Cueto seems due for some regression moving forward — he pitched to a 4.05 FIP last year — but that probably won’t start Saturday vs. the Cubs. Their offense has been subpar against right-handed pitchers, ranking just 18th in wRC+. They’ve also been extremely generous with strikeouts, racking up the third-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Cueto is also one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Jose Urquidy ($6,000), Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-124)
Urquidy is not someone typically worth considering heavily in DFS. He doesn’t typically pitch deep into games, averaging just over five innings per start, and he’s not a strong strikeout pitcher. He’s averaged just 6.69 strikeouts per nine innings, which is well below average in 2022.
However, he’s so cheap on Saturday’s slate that might not matter. Urquidy’s price tag has decreased by -$2,400 on DraftKings over the past month, and his current salary implies him for just 9.35 fantasy points. Urquidy is coming off of 32.81 DraftKings points in his last outing, so he clearly has the potential to beat that number.
He also has a solid matchup against the Mariners, and his opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Pairing Urquidy and Musgrove will likely be the preferred strategy for most DFS players on Saturday, and that’s the top combo for cash games.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
J.T. Brubaker ($8,000), Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (+205)
Brubaker is a massive underdog vs. Musgrove, which is expected to keep his ownership very modest. He’s currently projected for less than 5% ownership, per THE BAT X, but there’s plenty to like about Brubaker in this spot.
For starters, Brubaker is a quality strikeout pitcher. He’s averaged 9.91 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is one of the top marks among Saturday’s starters. He has two games with at least nine whiffs over his past four outings, giving him plenty of upside.
Additionally, the Padres offense is not particularly imposing. They’re still without Fernando Tatis Jr., and they rank just 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Brubaker may not have much win equity against Musgrove, but he can succeed in this spot. I will gladly roll the dice with him at minimal ownership.
Tony Gonsolin ($9,100), Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-181)
Gonsolin is the second-largest favorite on Saturday’s slate, and he has been fantastic for the Dodgers this season. He’s pitched to a sparkling 1.62 ERA across 39 innings, and he’s also racked up an 8.54 K/9. He seems unlikely to pitch to that level all season — his 3.55 FIP is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA — but he’s been wonderful to start the year.
Gonsolin has also seen a price decrease of late. He was priced at $10,200 two starts ago, and he posted a Plus/Minus of +6.08 against this same Diamondbacks squad. He followed that up with a Plus/Minus of +5.97 in his last outing at $9,600.
With that in mind, people must be clamoring to play this guy at $9,100, right? Not exactly. He’s projected for approximately 12% ownership in THE BAT X. Gonsolin has the potential to outscore Musgrove, making him an outstanding pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack using the FantasyLabs ceiling projections belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Mookie Betts (1) ($6,000)
- Freddie Freeman (2) ($5,800)
- Trea Turner (3) ($5,900)
- Will Smith (4) ($5,000)
- Cody Bellinger (7) ($4,500)
No real surprises here. The Dodgers have been a staple of this section all season, and Saturday is no exception. Their offense has been arguably the best in the league this season, and their average of 5.69 runs per game ranks first by a wide margin.
The Dodgers have been at their best against right-handed pitchers, and they’ll be facing a right-hander on Saturday in Merrill Kelly. He’s been solid this season, pitching to a 3.49 ERA and a 3.12 FIP, but the Dodgers roughed him up for eight runs over two innings in their last meeting. Overall, the Dodgers lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.3 runs.
This stack is headlined by Betts, who has been red-hot of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.78 over his past 10 games while hitting four homers in his past seven contests. Betts has also been outstanding when facing right-handers on the road, posting a 211 wRC+ in that split.
Bellinger is the wild card in this stack. He’s expected to hit seventh for the Dodgers, which should keep his ownership reasonable.
However, he owns a higher ceiling projection than Edwin Rios and Justin Turner, who are expected to hit ahead of him in the order. Some people don’t like skipping spots in the order when stacking, so a 1-2-3-4-7 stack for the Dodgers is an interesting way to target what should be a very popular squad.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
If you’re looking for a bit more value with your stack, consider the Phillies. They own the top five-man stack, per THE BAT X in projected Plus/Minus:
This is admittedly a weird combination of players, spanning virtually the entire Phillies lineup. Still, this group is projected for approximately 40 DraftKings points at just $18,100.
This stack also features plenty of quality hitters. Hoskins, Castellanos, Schwarber and Realmuto are all All-Star-caliber hitters, and they all check in at $4,600 or less on DraftKings.
They’re taking on Taijuan Walker, who has pitched to a 2.70 ERA through his first six starts. However, he’s averaged just 5.40 strikeouts per nine innings, so he allows plenty of balls to be put in play. The Phillies have the power to turn any batted ball event into a homer.
If you’re looking to make this stack a bit more conventional, you can replace Herrera with Bryce Harper. While Harper isn’t as strong of a play in terms of projected Plus/Minus, he’s obviously a far better hitter than Herrera in a vacuum. He’s also expected to bat third in the lineup, which gives this stack a bit more of a conventional look.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christopher Morel ($2,700 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel), Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (Johnny Cueto)
I love targeting cheap leadoff hitters in DFS, and Morel fits that description on Saturday. He’s expected to bat first for the Cubs against Cueto, and he has been highly productive in that role recently.
He’s had at least one hit in six straight games, and he has an extra-base hit in back-to-back contests. Historically, leadoff hitters with a comparable salary have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.37 on DraftKings, making him an excellent addition to cash game lineups.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,800 DraftKings), Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (Michael Lorenzen)
The Blue Jays are not available on the FanDuel main slate. They’ve chosen to focus on the eight games starting between 4:07 p.m. ET and 7:15 p.m. ET, meaning the later games have been omitted.
That said, Guerrero has plenty of appeal on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to just $4,800, which is an absurdly low price tag. Guerrero has been priced below $5,000 on just one previous occasion during the 2022 regular season, making him an outstanding buy-low candidate.
His numbers have been down to start the year, but he continues to make excellent contact. He ranks in the 97th percentile on both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, so better results should be on the way.
Jesse Winker ($3,400 on DraftKings), Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros (Jose Urquidy)
Winker is another option who isn’t available on the FanDuel main slate, but he’s an elite leverage option against the popular Urquidy on DraftKings. With plenty of people looking to load up on the Astros starter, Winker is expected to be under-owned as the Mariners’ leadoff hitter.
He hasn’t had a great start to his Mariners tenure, but Winker was one of the best hitters in the league against right-handed pitching in year’s past. A homer against Urquidy would vault Winker teams up the scoreboard on Saturday, making him an ideal one-off for GPPs.
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images.
Pictured: Joe Musgrove.
