The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nolan Gorman ($2,000): Second Baseman, St. Louis Cardinals
It is rare to find a player minimum-priced batting second for a quality team, but that is exactly what we have tonight with Nolan Gorman for the St. Louis Cardinals. There are a lot of expensive bats and a pitcher we will want to get to tonight, so taking the savings on Gorman will come in handy. Gorman was called up on Friday, and in his three games, he is 5-for-10 with two doubles and four runs scored. That includes 21.0 DraftKings points yesterday thanks to three hits, three runs, and one RBI.
Gorman has a 97% Bargain Rating and is second in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings for THE BAT projections. Gorman and the Cardinals get a matchup against right-hander Jose Berrios. Berrios hasn’t found much success in his first full season with the Blue Jays. He is allowing a career-high 1.32 HR/9 with a career-low 15.3% strikeout rate. Berrios is also allowing a 47.1% hard-hit rate. Gorman displayed power in Triple-A last season, where he had a .368 ISO. He is simply too cheap at the minimum.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Andrew Benintendi ($2,800): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
After recording a negative Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 13 games, Andrew Benintendi seems to be heating up with the bat. He has three hits in each of his previous two games to go along with one walk and RBI in each. Benintendi has recorded over 18 FanDuel points during that time and has an 83% Bargain Rating in this matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Royals are only 14-26 on the season, but Benintendi has been their lone bright spot. He leads the team in batting average, hits, RBI, and on-base percentage.
Benintendi gets a matchup against right-hander Zach Davies, who continues to succeed by keeping hitters off balance. Davies is leaning very heavily on two pitches: an 89.3 mile-per-hour fastball and a change-up. It seems to be working, as he has a career-best 28.6% hard-hit rate and a 0.92 HR/9. However, Davies has shown a little more struggle against left-handed batters, which gives Benintendi some appeal in this spot. He is a perfect one-off to target on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($10,500 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Despite being the most expensive pitcher on this 10-game slate by a wide margin, it is nearly impossible to get away from Gerrit Cole in this home matchup against the Orioles. Over the last five games, Cole has shown incredible consistency, averaging 27.3 DraftKings points per game while throwing over 90 pitches in each of those five starts. During that period, Cole has also only allowed six earned runs while throwing 32.1 innings. Cole is 4-0 on the season, with all four wins coming over that five-game stretch.
This home matchup for Cole is a juicy one. The Orioles are last in the AL East as they have lost seven of their previous 10 games. They have the second-lowest wOBA on the slate, and the Orioles rank tied for the third-lowest slugging percentage in the league. They also boast a 24.4% strikeout rate. Cole had a slow start to the season, but his stats are ramping up quickly over his last five games.
Cole is a great option and a tough fade, even with a steep price tag and ownership projection.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Aaron Judge has the highest projection in THE BAT and our in-house projections on the slate. He leads the league in home runs with 15 and is second on the Yankees in RBIs with 31. Judge is still striking out at a 24.2% rate, but he has a career-high .358 ISO and a .453 wOBA. His statcast numbers look even better, as Judge has a 63.2% hard-hit rate and a 26.4% barrel percentage. In other words, When Judge makes contact, the ball tends to go a long way. He also has a career-high .318 batting average, so even if he isn’t hitting home runs, he can still provide value with several hits.
Judge and the Yankees get a matchup with Jordan Lyles. They are implied to score five runs, which is the third-highest total on the slate. Pairing Cole on the mound with Judge at the plate sounds enticing in this spot. Lyles has done a decent job of keeping the ball in the yard, but this may be his toughest test as the Yankees rank tied for second with 57 home runs this season.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Once again, the Dodgers have the best stack on the slate according to THE BAT. They are implied to score 5.5 runs, which is the top mark on the slate.
The Dodgers continue to lead the National League with a record of 27-13 with a league-high 217 runs, so it’s no surprise that they check-in as the top stack.
It will be difficult to fire up this stack while also having Gerrit Cole on the mound, so a difficult decision will have to be made on whether you prioritize this stack or Cole. There is also a little bit of weather concern for the Dodgers, so make sure to keep an eye on our lineups page for updates.
Mookie Betts is clicking on all cylinders right now as he has had a home run in back-to-back games. He has also had at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games. Betts is extremely consistent at putting fantasy points on the board, and we haven’t even seen his steal upside yet. This is a great spot to target Betts.
Freddie Freeman continues to lead the Dodgers with 46 hits, and he is the only player on the team batting above .300. After winning a World Series with the Braves last season, Freeman hasn’t missed a beat in his first season with the Dodgers. He ranks seventh in the league with a .391 on-base percentage.
Trea Turner is the most expensive Dodgers bat on DraftKings, but it feels deserving as he has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last eight games. He also has at least one hit in 14-straight games and leads the team with eight stolen bases. His power seems to be down, but he is doing everything else.
Will Smith is the second-most expensive catcher on DraftKings, but he has also been highly consistent. He has at least one hit in nine of his last 10 games and has two home runs in his last four. He’s one of the best offensive catchers in baseball.
After those top four, this stack has a drop-off in production, but Max Muncy is rating out as the next best option. Muncy is a very boom or bust player but does get the platoon split in this matchup.
In his first full season in the big leagues, Joan Adon is off to a brutal start. He is 1-7 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.23 HR/9. These Dodgers bats should be able to tee off against Adon. He did show a lot of strikeout upside in the minor leagues, but that number has dropped significantly to 18.1% this season. Make sure this game plays, but if it does, this Dodgers stack has the highest upside on the slate.
