Baseball is officially back, and it’s one of the best possible sports for DFS. The scoring is far less predictable than it is in sports like basketball and football, making it ideal for guaranteed prize pools.
This season, I’m going to help walk you through each slate on Tuesday and Friday to help identify some possible leverage spots to take advantage of in guaranteed prize pools.
To help, I’ll be leaning on the vast array of FantasyLabs tools and metrics, including the Player Models, Trends Tool, and projected ownership. I’ll also be utilizing Derek Carty’s BAT X Projections, which are now available as an add-on within our models.
You can also use our Lineup Builder to hand-build your teams, or you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for large-field tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Friday’s 12-game main slate.
MLB DFS Chalk Pitchers
- Sean Manaea ($10,200 on DraftKings, $9,900 on FanDuel)
- Julio Urias ($9,200 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel)
No one is projected to be uber chalky at pitcher on Friday. Manaea and Urias currently lead the slate in projected ownership via The BAT X, with both players checking in around 30% on DraftKings.
Let’s start with Manaea. He’s always been a solid pitcher, and he’s continued his production in his first year with the Padres. He’s pitched to a 3.77 ERA, and his 3.28 xERA and 3.26 FIP suggest he’s been slightly unlucky.
The big difference with Manaea this season is his increased strikeout potential. He’s historically been more of a pitch-to-contact guy, but he’s racked up 10.47 strikeouts per nine innings through his first seven starts this season. That’s an excellent mark, putting him in the top 10 for qualified starting pitchers.
He’ll face a tough matchup Friday vs. the Giants, but he does have a few factors working in his favor. For starters, this game will take place in San Francisco. Pitching on the road is almost never as good as pitching at home, but Oracle Park might be an exception. It has historically been one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, so it should keep the scoring to a minimum.
The Giants have also been a bit more vulnerable against left-handed pitchers. They rank 11th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and they rank 15th in strikeout rate.
Overall, I would consider this a slightly above-average matchup for Manaea, but it’s nowhere near as good as his projected ownership suggests. I’m fine with being underweight on him.
Meanwhile, Urias is in a boom-or-bust spot vs. the Phillies. They have the fifth-worst strikeout rate against southpaws this season, but they also boast the sixth-highest wRC+. They also rank second in ISO, so they have the potential to pile up strikeouts and homers.
Urias has also had a bit of a weird season. His traditional 3.00 ERA looks good, but his FIP sits at a concerning 4.93. His strikeout rate has dipped from 9.45 last season to 6.50 this year, while his average fastball velocity has fallen by 1.1 miles per hour.
The Phillies are currently implied for 4.3 runs in this matchup, which is merely the ninth-lowest total on the slate. I might be interested in Urias as a contrarian option, but certainly not as a popular one. There’s too much risk to play him at 30% ownership.
Alternative Pitching Options
